24 February 2018 (Group racing at Rosehill Gardens)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 2018

 

Racing at ROSEHILL with fine weather forecast and the penetrometer reading 4.89, meaning we’re looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL with the rail out +6M. Hoping for an even track (pace dependant), but expecting no major disadvantage closer to the fence/pace, but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the Class 2 TAB Highway over 1100m and there looks to be decent pace on paper here, so pace/tactics will be important. Think GOLDEN LEGACY @ $5.50+ (most operators) can get the sit just behind the leading pack who I’m hoping pour on the pressure early. Main danger most definitely those leaders I speak of in SHE KNOWS, CAMILLO and TRY A LIL HARDER.

SUGGEST: GOLDEN LEGACY (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4 / F / 1, 2, 4 / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: Next is an open event over 1500m and keen on SHOW A STAR here at a respectable enough $3.30+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Has always had a stack of ability and has found his feet nicely up north for the Bjorn Baker stable. Will make own luck up front, corssing from the wide gate and just don’t want to get engaged in any speed battles with NAT KING CU. As long as that doesn’t happen, should be very hard to catch/beat. Main danger CELLERMAN and NAT KING CU.

SUGGEST: SHOW A STAR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.30+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / 3, 8 / F), (F / 3, 8 / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 3: Next is the Group 2 Silver Slipper Stakes for the two year olds over 1100m and obviously plenty on the line with the Golden equivalent not far away. Small but very select field and tough! Don’t see a reason to jump off ESTIJAAB at $2.70+ (NEDS) who was ultra-impressive on debut and comes here looking for 2/2 heading into the Slipper. Disappointed by the scratching of ZOUSAIN at a very juicy price, but unfortunately has been scratched this morning. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: ESTIJAAB (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $2.70+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Next is the Spark Of Life Handicap over 1100m. Tough race, plenty of chances as the market suggests with almost the entire field at single figure odds or very close to. Going to lean towards a stable who are in white-hot form in Brad Widdup, with two runners here in **ACQUME** at $7.50+ and WORKDRINKS at $14+ with UBET and NEDS. ACQUME was super last time behind She Will Reign who starts favourite despite a wide gate in Group 1 Oakleigh Plate in Melbourne today. Really like on the back of that run and is 1/1 second up as is the case here. Looks to be plenty of tempo so can hopefully find a spot ‘close enough’ from the sticky gate and can hopefully come over the top of them at a nice each way price. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, a secondary play on stablemate WORKDRINKS at a juicy price first up here. Is 1/1 first up, and 4/4 placings in short career to date. Happy to play around the two in that order in a wide, open affair.   

SUGGEST: **ACQUME** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $7.50+, WORKDRINKS (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (F / 7, 12 / F / 7, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Next is another of the features of the day, this time the Group 2 Mille Fox Stakes for the fillies and mares, to be run over 1300m. Can’t go past PROMPT RESPONSE at a much better than most others price of $3.70+ with NEDS. Always had a good opinion of this girl, backing her without luck over the spring in some big races when not far away and reckon she can go 2/2 this preparation while some others are still finding their way back to peak fitness. Main danger FOX PLAY who I wanted to back (first up last prep went inches away from killing Bambi and beating Winx) however trials have been poor and although conceding can improve significantly race day, just need to see her run well on the back of those trials before investing any hard earned on her.   

SUGGEST: PROMPT RESPONSE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.70+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 4 / 2, 4 / F), (F / F / 2 / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is the Listed Parramatta Cup to be run over 1900m. Like **CARZOFF** down in the weights here at a respectable enough $4.50+ with BET365 and NEDS who look to be offering some better prices today as I type them again. Won’t know itself with 53kg and should get a good run in transit from barrier 9 with Avdulla aboard. Never far away and can definitely get the job done here as it has for us in the past. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, want something each way on LORD KINGSLEY @ $21+ with BET365 and SPORTSBET. Very underrated galloper for mine and with decent enough tempo up front here, can hopefully get chance to run over the top of then, somewhat dependant on how the track is playing. Good thing is we’ll know by race 6. CARZOFF much better weighted but as a result get 4+ times the price.

SUGGEST: **CARZOFF** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.50+, LORD KINGSLEY (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (F / 9, 11 / F / 9, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: Next is arguably the feauture of the day, with the running of the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes for the three year olds over 1400m. Cracking race and field as you’d expect and going to lean slightly in the corner of PIERATA given the odds on offer with $7+ available with both NEDS and BET365. Has done absolutely nothing wrong and although those shorter in the market also haven’t and look hard to beat, the better each way value available here, gives PIERATA the nod here. Main dangers KEMENTARI and TRAPEZE ARTIST who both were very impressive winning first up this campaign and come here cherry rips second up. Doesn’t end there, but for mine, happy to leave things there.

SUGGEST: PIERATA (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 3 / F / 4), (roving 2, 3, 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 95 to be run over 1100m and at the risk of sounding like a broken record another wide open, very competitive affair as looks the case with most races at both Caulfield and Rosehill today. Liked the return run of HIEROGLYPHICS and as a result, think she can go one better here at a very tidy $9+ with NEDS. Sticky gate, but gets back, hence key to chances will be how track is playing and whether backmarkers are getting their chance. As a result, any added tempo up front will only help. Then, want a secondary play on two at odds. One who is always big overs and that’s the case again today with *KUDERO* at a juicy $31+ with UBET. Always needs luck in racing, but when it comes together this old boy can beat plenty on his day, especially in this grade. Racing well, be interesting where they settle as decided to lead last time, and the other is STRATURBO at $35+ with UBET. Not in as good form, but will be in a prominent position and can produce on his day. Happy to make both BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day at their respective prices. Main dangers MEMES, FICKLE FOLLY and SELITA.

SUGGEST: HIEROGLYPHICS (EACH WAY) @ $9+, *KUDERO* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, *STRATURBO* (EACH WAY) @ $35+, FIRST FOUR (3, 10, 15 / F / 3, 10, 15 / 5, 9, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 9: We finish a benchmark 89 over 1350m. Like LOFTY’S MENU here at $7.50+ with NEDS. Another underrated galloper for mine as you get with some of the lesser known stables and has a very good win strike rate of 7 wins from 19 starts which is excellent in anyone’s language. Happy to play there, in addition to PIONEERING right down in the weights (won’t know herself with 53kg after the claim) and represents good value here at a juicy $21+ with UBET and BET365. Does need to lift on recent form, but getting closer to the mark in recent times and weight can make a big difference here. Main danger BRATISLAVA.

SUGGEST: LOFTY’S MENU (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $7.50+, PIONEERING (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 7, 12 / F), (F / 7 / F / 2, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $12.34+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: ACQUME @ $7.50+, CARZOFF @ $4.50+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: KUDERO @ $31+, STRATURBO @ $35+

#happypunting