SATURDAY, MARCH 10, 2018
Racing at RANDWICK with weather forecast looking relatively clear in Sydney, penetrometer 5.19, so currently looking at an improving GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +6M (1600m – WINNING POST, +4M REMAINDER). We head to RANDWICK with the rail out +6M for the most part, after being out +3M two weeks’ back. Hoping for an even track (pace dependant), but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a Group 3 for the fillies and mares over the famous Randwick mile (1600m). Unfortunately, the bookies seem to be in sync with my thinking with the two top picks most definitely the two shortest in the market in the form of NETTOYER and THE PINNACLE. Slight lean towards THE PINNACLE at $3.20+ with most operators. Very consistent type only once out of the placings and that was at Group 2 level at the end of last prep. Ready to peak third up with Corey Brown aboard. Then, a secondary play on SHAGRA up from Melbourne at $12+ (most operators) after a good run in very good race (Group 3) at Flemington. Main danger NETTOYER, ahead of Melbourne visitor DREAMS OF PARIS.
SUGGEST: THE PINNACLE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.20+, SHAGRA (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (4, 8 / 6 / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 2: Next is a Listed event for the three year olds over 1100m. Tough race, with plenty of chances, and most hopes surrounding HOUTZEN and how good she actually is beyond her famous two-year-old days. We’ll learn plenty today, as to whether she puts pay to these comfortably or not. Going to stick with her at what looks a generous price of $3+ with BET365 and BETFAIR. Form is behind much better horses than this, despite the grade. Then, a play on DEBONAIRLY at $12+ (most operators) who can be hard to catch, but is very good on her day. Was very well backed at odds first up when okay, but can improve here second up. Main danger definitely I AM EXCITED and I wouldn’t be shocked if ACQUME at odds can improve. Gave ‘She Will Reign’ a scare two back when only beaten a length, however is worse off at the weights v I AM EXCITED hence hard to see turning the tables here, but one for multiples.
SUGGEST: HOUTZEN (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3+, DEBONAIRLY (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (6 / 3, 5, 7 / F / 3, 5, 7), (6 / F / 3 / 5, 7) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 3: Next of the Group 2 Riesling for the two year olds fillies over 1200m. ESTIJAAB should be winning this and winning this well, however don’t have any interest in taking the $1.22 to $1.30 on offer with most. We’re talking about two year olds and always the chance of one improving out of sight. As a result, take a one out early quaddie leg to try and build value on top of the $1.25 or $1.30, however wouldn’t be driving hard on a standalone basis. Instead, prefer to have plays on OUTBACK BARBIE at $8+ (most operators) and ENNIS HILL at $17+ (BETFAIR). ENNIS HILL has done little wrong outside of the Blue Diamond when things didn’t go to plan, and wouldn’t be the first runner to improve following a sub-par Blue Diamond run. **OUTBACK BARBIE** same boat, winning on debut, placing behind Sunlight in the Magic Millions and winning a trial by 9.5L. As a result, actually happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger obviously ESTIJAAB.
SUGGEST: **OUTBACK BARBIE** (EACH WAY) @ $8+, ENNIS HILL (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 1 / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Now for the two year-old colts and geldings equivalent, with the running of the Group 2 Todman over 1200m. This could come down to tactics, with decent pace on paper here. EL TROOF has been very well backed in early markets as alerted by the trusty free Plunge App (www.plungeapp.com.au/download) as an Early Saturday Mover this morning. Only knows one way, but will others take him on. For this reason, thinking this might be set for one behind the pace to come over the top of them, hence leaning towards another couple of double price plays in the form of LEGEND OF CONDOR at $14.50+ (BETFAIR) and PLAGUE STONE at $14+ (UBET, BETFAIR). Likes the change of tactics last time for LEGEND OF CONDOR who flew late and hoping they do the same here for the reason outlined above. PLAGUE STONE has similar reasoning to Ennis Hill in previous race, having done nothing wrong before Blue Diamond when poor, however vet did find mucus on scope, hence legitimate excuse. Main dangers are simple in EL TROOF and PERFORMER who looks terribly hard to beat but rock bottom odds for mine at $2 with most. Be very surprised if the winner hasn’t been mentioned above.
SUGGEST: LEGEND OF CONDOR (EACH WAY) @ $14.50+, PLAGUE STONE (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2 / 1, 2 / F / 6, 7), (1, 2 / F / 1, 2 / 6, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Next is the Group 2 Challenge Stakes to be run over 1000m. Good race, but there is a clear top pick at this level and that is with the best sprinter in the land REDZEL at $1.55+ with most operators. Yes, not a fan of backing short priced favourites, however in some instances $1.55 is decent enough value, as looks the case here. Runs time that others here simply can’t, unless they can rip out a personal best performance out of the blue, or something is not quite right with REDZEL. Very hard to beat and keen on a WIN only basis. Main dangers ENGLISH, VIRIDINE and TERRAVISTA are those who have either been competitive at the top level (ENGLISH, TERRAVISTA) or have major scope for improvement (VIRIDINE).
SUGGEST: REDZEL (WIN) @ $1.55+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6, 9 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 80%)
Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is the first of the features, the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes over 1300m. Hard race, as illustrated by the market with all runners besides one at 10/1 or less. Firstly, going with the class at the top here with HAPPY CLAPPER who will need a good ride from Blake Shinn from barrier 1. $7.50+ is the sort of value we’re after here with CENTREBET and happy to be in his corner, in addition to TULIPS at the other end of the list with $12+ on offer with BET365 and CENTREBET. Handles the Sydney way of going and Randwick, given super run in the Everest and won good race last time and may be yet to hit ceiling which is key here. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: HAPPY CLAPPER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, TULIPS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 9 / F / 1, 9) (CONFIDENCE 27.5%)
Race 7: Next is the other feature of the day, the Group 1 Randwick Guineas over the mile (1600m). This can be looked at a couple of ways. Those short in the market having a class gap on the rest at this distance/level and dominate, or it isn’t as simply as it looks on paper and hence the race runs deep and there’s serious value on offer. Given what I’m all about, I’m going to lean towards the latter but will not be surprised if the likes of KEMENTARI, PIERATA, TRAPEZE ARTIST and D’ARGENTO are too good. As a result, looking at staggered plays on ACE HIGH at $21+ (BET365), *TANGMERE* at $67+ (BET365), *TANGLED* at $110+ (BETFAIR) and *SULLY* at $55+ (BETFAIR). The knock on all (and reason why we get such big odds on each) is simply due to the fact that all will be better over longer distances, however that’s not to say each isn’t capable of surprising over this shorter distance here. Given the odds on offer, happy to play, and actually make the three longest shots all BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day. Main dangers are those listed earlier in KEMENTARI, PIERATA TRAPEZE ARTIST and D’ARGENTO.
SUGGEST: ACE HIGH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $21+, *TANGMERE* (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $67+, *TANGLED* (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $110+, *SULLY* (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $55+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 5, 10 / F / 2, 3, 5, 10 / 1, 6, 8, 14) (CONFIDENCE 17.5%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Group 3 Wenona Girl for the mares to be run over 1200m. Even race as you always seem to get with these black type mare events, however think best value lies with RAVI at the top of the weights at $8.50+ with most operators, and MISS GUNPOWDER up from Melbourne for Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig at a juicy $16+ with UBET and CENTREBET. Looks to be decent pace on paper here which should suit RAVI, and is proven at this level. Has first up form, so just want to see some monetary support (steady is fine) closer to race time, as they have backed a couple of others and several here are first up from breaks which adds an additional level of complexity. MISS GUNPOWDER draws well here which is the big plus/difference. Would love to see them camp behind the leading pack and then simply peel out at the right time. Is more than capable at this level, although it’s been a while since last win, hence time to head back into those winning stalls, ideally today at a price. Main dangers SUGAR BELLA and SLOW BURN, both hard to beat but rock bottom prices after strong backing in early markets, again as alerts by Plunge.
SUGGEST: RAVI (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, MISS GUNPOWDER (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (F / 7, 9 / 7, 9 / 1, 3), (7, 9 / 1, 3 / F / 1, 3) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: We finish with the Listed Randwick City Stakes over 200m and will keep this short and sweet to finish things off, with a clear cut top pick here in **ALWARD** at $3+ with CENTREBET. First up run was terribly unlucky and showed he seems to have come back better than ever to my eye. Will hopefully show that today by disposing of this lot. Keen. Main dangers EMPORER’S WAY and any the Waller stablemates especially any who are backed to beat ALWARD (from LIAPARI, PATRICK ERIN, and CARZOFF). Even at the shorter price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **ALWARD** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3+, FIRST FOUR (4, 7, 10, 12 / 8 / F / 4, 7, 10, 12), (F / 4, 7, 10, 12 / 8 / 4, 7, 10, 12) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Average odds $21.40+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: OUTBACK BARBIE @ $8+, ALWARD @ $3+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: TANGMERE @ $67+, TANGLED @ $110+, SULLY @ $55+