SATURDAY, MARCH 24, 2018
Racing at ROSEHILL in the Autumn, and that normally means rain and no difference here. Forecast looking relatively clear on race day, but penetrometer currently 5.98 equating to a HEAVY (8), however could end up SOFT (7) or even (6) later today.
RAIL: +2M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL for Golden Slipper day with the rail out +2M, after being in the TRUE position last week. Hoping and expecting an even track (pace dependant), but expecting no disadvantage out wider, but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a Listed event over 1200m. Even start and a fair bit will depend on the track, with several here unknown on softer tracks, including clear favourite I AM EXCITED. Going to go with one who proven softer track form and form around the favourite in ACQUME at $8.50+ with BETFAIR. Gets crucial two kilo swing in the weights (for 0.8L defeat) and there doesn’t look to be a stack of pace on paper, so should get good run in transit despite the wider gate. Main danger I AM EXCITED who should be hard to beat as long as the track is no concern.
SUGGEST: ACQUME (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3 / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is the Group 3 Epona Stakes for the fillies and mares over 1900m. Wide open race, which means plenty of value on offer and as a result, looking at a three-pronged play. We’ll start with DOMED for John Thompson at $13+ with BETFAIR. Can again go forward for the sticky gate and step up in this grade, then there’s *OKLAHOMA GIRL* at a juicy $26+ with BET365. Unlucky last time and ready to show best after a few runs this preparation. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Finally, a longshot play on one at the bottom of the weights in ARDANZA at $126+ with most operators. Hasn’t been far away in lesser grade, but can improve over this longer trip, hence in lies the value. Main dangers CONSOMMATEUR, HARLOW GOLD, THE PINNACLE and KARAVALI. Happy to take on the short hot pot NETTOYER who can win but is big ‘unders’ and no value for mine.
SUGGEST: DOMED (EACH WAY) @ $13+, *OKLAHOMA GIRL* (EACH WAY) @ $26+, ARDANZA (EACH WAY) @ $126+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 8 / F / F / 5, 11, 13) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 3: Next is the Group 3 Manion Cup over 2400m. Happy to take on one I rate, but short priced favourite here ALWARD a lay for mine on a soft track, at such a short price ($3.50). Instead, have two clear top raters here in the form of LORD FANDANGO at $5.30+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) and PATRICK ERIN at $7+ with most operators. Last time LORD FANDANGO ran over 2400m, we were on in the Caulfield Cup and the run was nothing short of sensational. Prior to that very good winning the Herbert Power over the same trip. PATRICK ERIN will absolutely love the wet track and is ready to fire in Australia after coming across from NZ. Happy to play around the two.
SUGGEST: LORD FANDANGO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.30+, PATRICK ERIN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 5 / F / 2, 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is the Group 1 Ranvet over 2000m. GAILO CHOP obviously all the rage and rightly so, but is rock bottom odds in a race like this on a soft track at $1.85. Maybe one for some multies and/or a one out early quaddie leg. Instead, at the better value, going to give **SINGLE GAZE** another go here at $6.20+ with BETFAIR. Was given absolutely no chance going back to the rear and having to coming around them wide in the Australian Cup when no runner all day could make ground out there. However, she did and managed to close for 5th and not beaten far in what was a super run against the pattern. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, a secondary, more speculative play on the rank outsider in the field, SARRASIN at $26+ with BET365. First two runs in Australia were good, before having an issue in the Villiers behind Winx before a break. Enough first up and wet track form to make a case at odds. Main danger most definitely GAILO CHOP.
SUGGEST: **SINGLE GAZE** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6.20+, SARRASIN (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 6, 8 / F), (F / 1 / F / 6, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Next is the Group 1 George Ryder to be run over 1500m and a legitimate test for the super star WINX with arguably the most in form competitor we have on our shores up against her in battle in the form of KEMENTARI, while HAPPY CLAPPER is a top drawer galloper and legitimate Group 1, proper horse. I can’t go as far as to tip against the star, but do think KEMENTARI is a legitimate danger here, so a true test on the cards. The softer track may actually help, but the one main rain KEMENTARI has had on a soft track was a very impressive win also. $1.83+ is currently on offer for the place on BETFAIR and as a result, compared with the $1.10 - $1.12 on offer for the WINX win, actually prefer to play there. Note no third dividend, hence requires a 2nd placing and hence why the better place price in a small, but very select field. Be surprised if the race doesn’t finish WINX (1st), KEMENTARI (2nd), HAPPY CLAPPER (3rd). Call me crazy, but recommend throwing KEMENTARI into the last leg of your early quaddie along with the obvious in WINX.
SUGGEST: KEMENTARI (PLACE) @ $1.83+, TRIFECTA (WINX / KEMENTARI / HAPPY CLAPPER) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is yet another Group 1, this time in the form of the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas. A lot here for mine revolves around whether ACE HIGH @ $5.90+ (BETFAIR) handles the wet track or not. Many will look at the form guide and see 0 placings from 4 starts on soft/heavy tracks, but happy to take the punt it may not be so much of an issue as long as we see some level of monetary support closer to race time. You’d think the stable would have the best idea. When you look at the 4 runners on softer tracks, all were over unsuitable, shorter 1200m-1600m distances, hence not a conclusive no, and has trialled well on softer tracks in the past. Primary play, ahead of MAIN STAGE at $25+ (BETFAIR), more than capable at the top level and softer going shouldn’t pose any problems. Would’ve loved to have something on TANGMERE at 125/1 but missed a run as third emergency. Main dangers VIN DE DANCE, CLIFF’S EDGE, D’ARGENTO and KAONIC. Super race, but damn tough.
SUGGEST: ACE HIGH (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.90+, MAIN STAGE (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $25+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 4, 8, 10 / F / 1, 14), (2, 4, 8, 10 / 1, 14 / F / 1, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Golden Slipper, the world’s richest 2YO event, run over 1200m. It’s hard enough sorting the two year olds, however when many are unknown on the softer track, and additionally how the track will play given the significant rain in the lead up, it makes the job trickier. But therein sometimes lies the opportunity and the better value. Or so we can only hope. ;-) I’ve been spruiking and backing a lot of the Waller two year olds at odds the past 6 months with good success as I noticed an apparent shift in focus from previous years when the two year olds were simply not a focus of the stable. I think the negative comments associated with Wallers’ apparent ‘inability’ to train 2YO took its toll, not to mention the riches on offer for up and running two year olds. As a result, don’t see any reason to jump off the two stablemates here in the form of PERFORMER at $11+ (BETFAIR), ahead of FIESTA at a juicy $30+ also with BETFAIR. Both will appreciate the tempo you would expect to associate with the Golden Slipper and hopefully track will allow both to come over the top from their respective wider gates. Then, want a longshot play on *LONG LEAF* at $81+ with BET365. Has only had one miss (3 wins from 4 starts) and was checked on the turn last time, hence a forgive. Now all of a sudden $81? At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. As for the dangers, well there are too many to list, in a wide, open affair.
SUGGEST: PERFORMER (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $11+, FIESTA (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $30+, *LONG LEAF* (EACH WAY – TERTIRARY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5 / F / 4, 13), (roving 4, 5, 13 / F) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is you guessed it, another Group 1, in the form of the Group 1 Galaxy over 1100m. And even if the track dries somewhat (it will simply equate to a better price), I want to be on one of my faves, in the form of the often underrated JUNGLE EDGE at $4.80+ (BETFAIR) and think we’ll be getting at least that come jump time after heavy backing earlier in the week. And then a couple at juicy prices in LADY ESPRIT at $34+ (UBET) and DERRYN at $26+ (BET365). We were on LADY ESPRIT last time at 70/1 and although we didn’t receive a cent in compensation, she ran a bottler, sitting 18th of 18th at the 400m before closing hard to only be beaten 2.05L. Is flying and although a query at this level, looks to be on an upward spiral which is key. Then, finally finding a wet track, need to have something on DERRYN at a juicy $26+ with UBET. Loves the wet and has run bottlers both in the wet and the Sydney way of going. Main dangers IN HER TIME, ENGLISH and VIRIDINE.
SUGGEST: JUNGLE EDGE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.80+, LADY ESPRIT (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $34+, DERRYN (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 5, 13 / F / 2, 11, 12), (3, 5, 13 / 2 / F / 11, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: We finish a simply cracking day of racing, with a Group 3 for the fillies and mares over 1200m. Despite the bad gate, running with the ‘best horse’ rule to finish things off here in the form of **TULIP** at $5.70+ with BETFAIR. Rewind back 12 months to this day, and she ran 3rd in the Golden Slipper on a heavy track than we will tackle here, hence the track will not be an issue at all. Just needs to find a spot from the gate and despite the big field, there doesn’t look to be a great deal of pace on paper, so the in-form Michael Walker can hopefully find a decent spot. We’ll also know by now how the track is playing and even whether three wide without cover isn’t necessarily a bad place or not. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day to finish things off. Then, a secondary play on NANCY at a juicy $31+ with both BET365 and TOPBETTA. Hasn’t shown best for a while, but arrives here fresh off soft trial, has gun jockey/trainer combination with Shinn/Snowden, drawn well, handles softer ground, and has won first up. Somewhat speculative over the shorter trip, but price too good to let fly. Main dangers SUGAR BELLA and FARAWAY TOWN at some odds.
SUGGEST: **TULIP** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.70+, NANCY (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 3 / F / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $24.96+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: SINGLE GAZE @ $6.20+, TULIP @ $5.70+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: OKLAHOMA GIRL @ $26+, LONG LEAF @ $81+