SATURDAY, MARCH 24, 2018
Racing at MORNINGTON and despite dry conditions for as far as we can recall, safe to say ‘the rains are coming) as illustrated by the BOM radar. As a result, the current GOOD (4) track ratings is expected to change and as a result banking on runners who prefer to get their toe into the ground.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MORNINGTON for their day in the sun (or rain, as per above/below), with the rail in the TRUE position. As a result, you’d think they will be getting off the fence, especially as the day progresses, but given the very dry conditions in the lead up mixed with the expected rain on race day, as important as ever to keep a close eye on early races (and as the rain falls) for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 78 over 1000m and a wide open start with every runner at or around single figure odds. MATTY is the one to beat, however not interested in the skinny $2.10 with most. Think the two at the bottom of the weights, represent best value in ROCKETS RED GLARE at $6.50+ (SPORTSBET, POINTSBET) and EXPLICITLY at $11+ with BET365. Both more than capable at this level and importantly handle softer going, should the heavens open. Happy to simply start with a WIN only play on each. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: ROCKETS RED GLARE (WIN) @ $6.50+, EXPLICITLY (WIN) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 5 / 6, 7 / 6, 7 / 2, 3, 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 90 over 2000m and another small field of acceptors, in this instance only a field of six. Another raffle type affair with all runners at single figure odds. Going to lean towards SHOREHAM here at a respectable enough $5.50+ with BETFAIR. Had returned to form this prep, before a couple of plainer effort before a freshen up for this and returns to a more suitable 2000m here. Handles the wet should the heavens open. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: SHOREHAM (EACH WAY) @ $5.50 (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Now for the two year olds over 1500m and a fair bit of guesswork here as you’d expect. Slight lean to A FIGHTING FURY at $4.60+ with BET365 after working home very well from the rear on debut at Ballarat. Has actually been triggered as a Plunge app ‘Early Saturday Mover’ (www.plungeapp.com.au/download), which is interesting given Hayes/Dabernig have three of the seven runners here, so hopefully a good guide. Note the gear change of winkers being added first time to hopefully assist. Main dangers the stablemates in MUSWELLBROOK who finished just as good and GHEEDAA. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: A FIGHTING FURY (EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6 / F / 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 78 for the fillies and mares over 1200m. another wide open affair as the market suggests and that looks to be the theme of the day. Best value for mine lies with JALAN JALAN at $11+ (most operators) and Weir’s apparent second stringer here in COSTA BOMB at $9+ with BET365. Both more than capable at this level when right, both first up here and handle the softer going. That’ll do me. Main dangers FREEHEARTED (the now short priced Weir runner) and SO FAR SOKOOL.
SUGGEST: JALAN JALAN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, COSTA BOMB (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 8 / F / 2, 3), (5, 8 / 2, 3 / F / 2, 3) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Next is another benchmark 78 over 1200m. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, another wide open affair as illustrated by the market with most runners (besides two) at single figure odds. Best value for mind lies with MY PAISANN at $9.50+ (CROWNBET, BET365) and PETITE’S REWARD at $7.50+ (most operators). Hard to split the two so will run with a play on each on WIN only basis’. Main dangers BOB OF THE HEAD and BRAHMOS, but doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: MY PAISANN (WIN) @ $9.50+, PETITE’S REWARD (WIN) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 7 / F / 2, 4), (5, 7 / 2, 4 / F / 2, 4) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is the first of the features, in the form of the Listed Hareeba Stakes over 1200m. Good race, but yet again plenty of chances. 10 runners and the longest odds are for *SCHISM* at $18+ (POINTSBET) and don’t see any reason why not to play right there, hence think all runners here have a legitimate chance. Track condition will be the key, but although her record on top of the ground is much better, has been placed two of three on soft ground and the complete miss was in a good race won by Vega Magic. Happy to play there in addition to *FIRST AMONG EQUALS* at a very tidy $15+ with CENTREBET. Has been competitive in better races than this, in strong stable now and has had time to learn/adjust, very good fresh record and handles the softer going. The harder they go, the better our chances. Actually happy to make the duo both BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: *SCHISM* (EACH WAY) @ $18+, *FIRST AMONG EQUALS* (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 9 / F / 1, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Next is the Listed Mornington Cup over 2400m with a free ticket into the Caulfield Cup up for grabs. Just have a feeling SELF SENSE can run a race here at a tidy $12+ with POINTSBET and BET365. Will relish the conditions and if they go at a decent clip, can be strong late. Then, don’t see any reason why KINGS WILL DREAM can’t win again at $2.28+ with BETFAIR. Looks an out and out winner and you’d be a brave soul to bet against a Weir runner who is in a habit of winning. Primary WIN only basis, the jump to 2400m the only query, but don’t see it posing too many issues in this stable.
SUGGEST: KINGS WILL DREAM (WIN – PRIMARY) @ $2.28+, SELF SENSE (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (F / 11 / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Mornington Guineas for the three year olds over the mile (1600m). Convinced **SHEEZDASHING** is going very well, and as long as the soft track isn’t a concern, can be hard to toss here. Was backed off the map last time at a big price, and simply had no luck in running, finally getting out once it was all over and hitting the line very well. Never seen a wet track, so be sure to monitor betting, but as long as there is simply solid enough support (no significant drift) then happy to be well and truly in her camp at a tidy $7.60+ with SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU. And at the nice each way value, actually happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers the Weir duo of PERUGGIA and SAVAHEAT but race most definitely doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: **SHEEZDASHING** (EACH WAY) @ $7.60+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 4 / F / 13), (roving 2, 4, 13 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over the mile (1600m). Finding it hard to split two here in the form of **MA JONES** at $6.60+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) and MY PEAKY BLINDERS at $2.45+ (POINTSBET) who was another Plunge ‘Early Saturday Mover’, so the stable support seems to be there. In saying that, will go with the better price on this occasion with MA JONES given the ‘each way’ odds on offer. Happy to finish in her corner, and actually make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger MY PEAKY BLINDERS and possibly a narrow final leg of the quaddie.
SUGGEST: **MA JONES** (EACH WAY) @ $6.60+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6 / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $9+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: SHEEZDASHING @ $7.60+, MA JONES @ $6.60+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: SCHISM @ $18+, FIRST AMONG EQUALS @ $15+