3 March 2018 (Group 1 racing at Royal Randwick)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, MARCH 3, 2018

 

Racing at RANDWICK with weather forecast looking clear in Sydney, penetrometer 5.41, so currently looking at a SOFT (5) surface.

RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to RANDWICK with the rail out +3M after being in the TRUE position two weeks’ back. Hoping for an even track (pace dependant), but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the TAB Highway, this time a Class 3 over the famous Randwick mile (1600m). Fairly even race on paper, but like IT’S A LOTTERY here at a respectable enough $5+ with SPORTSBET. Brings the right for line for mine into this, not far behind them in BM75 grade last time and prior beat many rivals from today and no worse off at the weights. Just needs an ounce of luck from barrier 10 (9 post scratchings) but has Josh Parr aboard to hopefully offset that. Main dangers KEYMASTER, VOLPE, SO IT IS and FUI SAN.

SUGGEST: IT’S A LOTTERY (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 6, 12 / F / 1, 2, 6, 12 / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 85 over 2000m. Another even race, however leaning towards **JUST SHINE** here towards the bottom of the weights at $4.60+ with CROWNBET and TOPBETTA. In very good form looking at three wins on the trot and four from past five if successful here. Up in grade but no world beaters here and looks to be on an upward spiral through the grades. Happy to actually make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, want a secondary play on THE BANDIT at a more than tidy $14+ with UBET. Slowly, but surely finding right fitness levels and form and as a result might just be ready to make the jump into the placings after a bit of a drought. Was racing in much better races than this last prep when outclasses at Group 2 and Group 3 level.

SUGGEST: **JUST SHINE** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.60+, THE BANDIT (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (F / 8, 10 / F / 8, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Now for the first of the features, starting with the Group 2 Skyline Stakes for the two year-old colts and geldings over 1200m, with the usual mad scramble for spots in the Golden Slipper. We really liked **ZOUSAIN** last week, but was unfortunately scratched at a price and lands here in a small, yet very competitive field at a tidy $12+ with CENTREBET. Will lose no admirers in the yard as this is one sexy looking beast. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, suggest a play for the Golden Slipper itself at a very juicy $67+ with BET365! Can make it two wins from two starts and hopefully head into the Slipper as one of the favourites after today. Main dangers SANTOS, LEGEND OF CONDOR and SPIN. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: **ZOUSAIN** (EACH WAY) @ $12+, ZOUSAIN (EACH WAY – GOLDEN SLIPPER) @ $67+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 4, 5 / 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Now for the two year-old fillies equivalent, with the Group 2 Sweet Embrace Stakes to be run over 1200m. Think Waller can bring up a very rare feat in terms of winning both big two year-old events on the day, given in the past the knock has been his inability to train two year olds. As I’ve stated before, issue wasn’t ability in my opinion, it was focus and think there was a bit of a hit to his ego which has forced him to start focusing a lot more attention on getting two year olds up and running and competitive in events such as the Golden Slipper. We’ve taken advantage of this in recent times (past 6 months) but still many who haven’t clicked, hence we keep getting decent value for this two year-old runners. Anyways, like FIESTA here at $4.40+ with most operators who should give us no excuses from the good gate. Also, want a secondary play on FUTOOH at $17+ with CENTREBET. Last start win was very good and has had a nice let up since to hopefully derive the improvement required to be competitive in this much better field. Query is how ready she is after the break, so be sure to monitor market and see her in the yard before jumping in. Main dangers SEABROOK and SATIN SLIPPER, but doesn’t end there.

SUGGEST: FIESTA (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.40+, FUTOOH (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 7 / F / 2, 5), (3, 7 / 2 / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Next is the Group 3 Liverpool City Cup to be run over 1300m. Can’t believe the odds on offer here for equal top weight *BOSS LANE* at a very juicy $31+ with CENTREBET. Has done it all before unlike many here who are very much on the up and ‘may’ do it, however given the big odds on offer, going to run with the tried and true and always consistent BOSS LANE. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Surely the price doesn’t last, so I’d recommend snapping that up. Then, also want something on INTERLOCUTER at a tidy $9+ with BET365 and SPORTSBET. Very consistent (4 wins, 7 x top 2, 8 x top 3 finishes from 8 starts), and although this is a jump up in grade is hopefully on the upward spiral to take this next step. Main dangers MACKINTOSH and CARE TO THINK but doesn’t end there in another deep race.

SUGGEST: *BOSS LANE* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, INTERLOCUTER (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 4 / F / 1, 7), (F / F / 3, 4 / 1, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes which reminds us of yesteryear and Tie The Knot who absolutely owned this specific race from 1999 to 2002 winning four straight Chipping Nortons. Anyways, today it’s all about the superstar WINX and rightly so. Let’s be honest barring an unfortunate incident, WINX will be winning this with $1.09+ on offer with CENTREBET, $1.08 with most. Some operators reeling in new customers with $2 for WINX up to $100 offers or similar, so you could do worse than taking advantage a sorting a small kitty for the coming weeks, regardless of how much you normally invest each week. You could argue this is the weakest field she has taken on for a while. When it gets to these situations, you can do a lot worse than just sit back, watch and admire and I feel obligated to have a ‘silly’ FIELD multiple just in case an absolute disaster occurs (Hugh falls off / she gets injured in the run) as the dividends would be a little crazy as she will be in almost everything. But let’s hope that most definitely doesn’t happen and we see this tremendous winning streak continue for many runs to come.

SUGGEST: WINX (WIN) @ $1.09+, FIRST FOUR (F / F / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 97.5%)

 

Race 7: Next is the Group 1 Surround Stakes for the three year-old fillies over 1400m. Concede ALIZEE is most definitely the one to beat and has been good to us, including a good win last start for followers, however given the price on offer ($2.70+), just prefer to play a couple of others instead at double figure each way prices. In saying that, she looks a good fit for multies, narrow quaddie (WINX, ALIZEE both one out) or similar. Instead, prefer to give SHOALS another chance at $11+ (BET365) and FROLIC at $14+ with CENTREBET. SHOALS has been very good to us on multiple occasions but obviously failed last time on the back of very strong backing late. She didn’t have a clear run, obviously didn’t like being knocked a round a little trying to get a run and although you would have expected her to still finish much closer, there were excuses. Going to just put a line through given what we have seen in the past and take a punt it was a one-off given the price on offer. FROLIC is an underrated galloper. Has done nothing wrong and was eating up the ground late behind the two hot faves here. The faster they go the better (although there doesn’t look to be a stack of pace on paper) and by race 7 we’ll know if backmarkers are getting their chance. And if so, step in at a great each way price. Main dangers ALIZEE and SHUMOOKH. If wondering why not RIMRAAM who we obviously cleaned up with two weeks’ back, the query is Sydney first time and more importantly staying at the 1400m, looking for 1600m now for mine.

SUGGEST: SHOALS (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FROLIC (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 6 / F / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is the last of the features, a Group 2 for the mares over 1400m. slight lean to ECKSTEIN here at a tidy $6+ with SPORTSBET. Gets in very well at the weights here, especially when compared to key rival here in RAIMENT who I rate. Happy to play there on an each way basis, ahead of main dangers DIXIE BLOSSOMS, RAIMENT and FRANCALETTA.

SUGGEST: ECKSTEIN (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (5, 6, 8 / F / 5, 6, 8 / 6), (F / 5, 6, 8 / 5, 6, 8 / 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 85 over 1200m. Big field, competitive finish and as a result looking at a three-pronged play. Primary WIN only play on OSBORNE BULLS who was well backed last time before being scratched at the barriers. As a result, they try again here and happy to play at $3.30+ with CENTREBET. Then, want to have something each way on GENERALISSIMO at $10+ (BET365) after super run first up. Will appreciate tempo here and in the decent field, should hopefully get that. Can come over the top of them and win here. Finally, *ZUMBELINA* is a must play each way at a silly price of $41+ with BET365. Hasn’t raced in this grade for a while, normally in much better races and gets important weight relief after 2kg claim, down to a 59kg which is still decent but deserved given track record. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers the other Godolphin pair first up here in PEACOCK and GHOSTLY. Monitor markets, with three key chances all from the same Godolphin stable.

SUGGEST: OSBORNE BULLS (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.30+, GENERALISSIMO (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $10+, *ZUMBELINA* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 10, 13 / F / 1, 8), (10, 13 / 3 / F / 1, 8) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $12.23+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: JUST SHINE @ $4.60+, ZOUSAIN @ $12+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: BOSS LANE @ $31+, ZUMBELINA @ $41+

#happypunting