31 March 2018 (Group 1 racing at Rosehill Gardens)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY, MARCH 31, 2018

 

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS again, with much finer conditions on this occasion which is a somewhat pleasant surprise. Forecast looks clear, with a warm, cloudy day with a chance of an early shower, but nothing major (0.4mm), hence looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: +4M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL again with the rail out +4M, after being out +2M last week, and TRUE the week prior. Hoping and expecting an even track (pace dependant), but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a Group 3 for the two year olds over 1400m. Pace/tactics and how track is playing is set to be key here with not a great deal of natural pace on paper, despite the decent sized field. Think NASAAYIM @ $13+ (most operators) gets a gun run from the good gate and that fact alone holds her in great stead for a race like this. Has done nothing wrong in short career to date winning twice, after narrow defeat on debut and had legitimate excuses last time when against the clear pattern of the day. Then, something the WIN on SPIN @ $4.90+ (BETFAIR) who looks perfectly suited up to the 1400m also. Main dangers, several needing luck from wider gates (but big chances should they get it) in IRUKANDJI, ARISTOCRATIC MISS, RINGERDINGDING and SWEET AVA.  

SUGGEST: NASAAYIM (EACH WAY) @ $13+, SPIN (WIN) @ $4.90+, FIRST FOUR (3, 7, 11, 12 / 1, 13 / F / 1, 13), (F / 3, 7, 11, 12 / 3, 7, 11, 12 / 1, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 2: Next is another Group 3, this time for those 4YO+ and over 2000m. following both the very good overseas form, coupled with the early monetary support from the Waller stable (who have four here) in the form of **ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN** at $4+ with BETFAIR and BET365. The trusty Plunge app alert us to the fact that there had been a flood of money Wednesday as soon as market opened $7.50 into $3.80! #crunch. If ready to fire, should be too good and extremely well weighted given rating. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger stablemate MACKINTOSH so be sure to keep a close eye on the markets to see where the stable sit pre-race, as well as HARLOW GOLD.

SUGGEST: **ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN** (EACH WAY) @ $4+, FIRST FOUR (2, 11 / 1 / F / F), (F / 2, 11 / 1 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Next is the Group 3 Star Kingdom over 1200m. Hot race, with plenty of chances. Been waiting for SPRIGHT and hopefully returns here after what can only be described as an extremely ‘eye-catching’ trial behind Pariah. Didn’t fire last preparation but only had the two runs and first up pulled up with legitimate issue. Has had plenty of time off and $16+ (BET365) looks excellent value in a very competitive race. Then, also happy to give FELL SWOOP another chance @ $10+ (most operators) after we were keen last time in Melbourne, when didn’t fire, however post-race scope found mucus, hence legitimate excuse although it doesn’t return the money invested. Main dangers DOTHRAKI, BURNING PASSION and KAEPERNICK, but doesn’t end there, plenty of legitimate chances.    

SUGGEST: SPRIGHT (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FELL SWOOP (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 4 / 2, 12 / F / 2, 12), (F / 1, 3, 4 / 1, 3, 4 / 2, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Next is the Group 2 Emancipation Stakes for the fillies and mares over 1500m. Cracking race, as you always get with these black type mare events. DAYSEE DOOM is flying and makes own luck and keeps winning, DIXIE BLOSSOMS is a gun, we all know that, but does have a knack of finding bad luck, especially at Rosehill, and then there’s FOX PLAY who is the one not coming from the Coolmore (where most others come from), but although being was well beaten, was a better race and is much better suited over 1500m as is the case in this instance. Also was super behind DAYSEE DOOM first up and gets the right weight swing to turn tables here. FOX PLAY is the value for mine of the three at a tidy $7.80+ with BETFAIR and happy to lean her way for that reason. Then, want something on DIXIE BLOSSOMS on a WIN only basis at $4+ with BET365. Unlucky last time, flew late and well weighted here. Main danger most definitely DAYSEE DOOM who gets stung weight wise here, but just makes own luck and keeps winning.

SUGGEST: FOX PLAY (EACH WAY) @ $7.80+, DIXIE BLOSSOMS (WIN) @ $4+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 3 / F / 2), (F / 1, 2, 3 / F / 1, 2, 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Next is the Group Tulloch Stakes for the 3YO colts and geldings over 2000m. Sticking with TANGMERE here at a shorter but still juicy $17+ (most operators) over a much more suitable trip. May even need longer still, but should be doing something here and a very good price on offer. Then, also want a play on PRIMITIVO at $10+ with BET365. Absolutely flew late last time and despite the jump in grade, should acquit himself well as long as the pace is on, which is actually need for both runners suggested in this instance. Main dangers LEVENDI, WEATHER WITH YOU (at odds) and ASTORIA and BELFAST, but once again, deep race and doesn’t end there. MONGOLIAN MARSHAL is all the rage but poison odds for mine, so happy to take on.

SUGGEST: TANGMERE (EACH WAY) @ $17+, PRIMITIVO (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3, 5 / F / 1, 2, 3, 5 / 7, 11), (1, 2, 3, 5 / 7, 11 / F / 7, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is the feature of the day, the running of the Group 1 Tancred Stakes to be run over 2400m. Not sure how to play here, with the obvious two short in the market through GAILO CHOP and ALMANDIN. GAILO CHOP is low flying with the one simply query here being the 2400m. 0/1 over the trip, but it was in an $8.2M race in Dubai. However only run really beyond 2000m, hence is this an after-thought/throw at the stumps or was this always the plan? ALMANDIN you know what you’re going to get and that’s a solid run here and will handle the 59kg, however both aren’t any great value at $2.30 and $3.20 respectively. So, without a great deal of confidence going to have more speculative plays at a couple of others at odds. Happy to give SINGLE GAZE another chance at $8+ (BETFAIR). Many will say can’t turn tables on GAILO CHOP given last run, but I can make a case for two reasons: 1) Proven over 2400m, 2) Kathy O’Hara went too early last time and you simply don’t take a strong, big striding, Weir galloper on like that. Then, a secondary play on *AMBITIOUS* at $19+ with UBET. Was good first up against the tempo when forced to go back from the bad gate. If they go hard up front (LASQUETI SPIRIT front running ride would be ideal), then can be a blowout over the top of them. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers the obvious in GAILO CHOP and ALMANDIN.   

SUGGEST: SINGLE GAZE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8+, *AMBITIOUS* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2 / 9 / F / 3), (F / 1, 2 / 1, 2 / 3, 9) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 7: Next is the second of the Group 1s, in the form of the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes for the 3YO fillies over 2000m. Cracking race, but damn hard. A lot here revolves around ALOISIA and how she has returned. She was a total forgive last time and prior to that was known to be minimal chance and well in need of the run. Given soft run last time after being taken out of it early in the straight fitness levels are still a slight concern, but she most definitely has the class. Given the price and current state of play, I’m thinking she’s a must for quaddies and multiples and the main danger, but thinking she will be peaking on Oaks day as opposed to the Spring where GF day was her main and only flop. Instead going with a three pronged play starting with BRING ME THE ROSES at $8.40+ (BETFAIR, SPORTSBETTING), ahead of RIMRAAM at $19.20+ (SPORTSBETTING) and then a longshot play on *DANCERS* at $41+ with most operators also. BRING ME ROSES is a very underrated filly in my opinion. Despite just the one win from nice starts, simply doesn’t know how to run a bad race and think she might have returned even better this time in. Gets in well at the weights and definitely the primary play here on an each way basis. RIMRAAM was obviously very good to us first up when we jumped aboard at 30/1, before she was smashed and won accordingly. Respect as a result, always consistent, should get a great run in transit from the good gate and although not well weighted, especially when compared to our top pick here, decent enough value. Finally, *DANCERS* was super late after a bad start in good race last time and simply looks to be the big overs across the board. You can do worse and at the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers ALOISIA, UNFORGOTTEN and TORVILL. Super edition of the race.

SUGGEST: BRING ME ROSES (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8.40+, RIMRAAM (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $19.20+, *DANCERS* (EACH WAY – TERTIARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5, 7 / F / 1, 5, 7 / 3, 6, 11), (F / 3 / 1, 5, 7 / 6, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is the Group 3 Doncaster Prelude over 1500m and like **ECUADOR** here at a much better than expected $9+ with most operators, which looks excellent each way value. Goes very well fresh, has trialled well for this, drawn ideally in 6 and simply looks very well suited in this grade and absolutely no concerns with 58kg. Happy to just play there and surround by a bunch of main dangers for the multiples. And happy to also make a BEST VALE bet of the day. Those main dangers being INTERLOCUTER, SHIRAZ, CELLARMAN, MISTER SEA WOLF and SPECTROSCOPE.

SUGGEST: **ECUADOR** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (4, 6, 7, 8, 10 / F / 4, 6, 7, 8, 10 / 2), (F / 4, 6, 7, 8, 10 / 4, 6, 7, 8, 10 / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 9: We finish a benchmark 93 over 1400m. Leaning with BEAU GESTE right at the bottom of the weights here at a tidy enough $5+ with BET365. Looked good first up, unbeaten second up (1 from 1), won’t know himself with 53kg and stable finding form. Happy to play there, ahead of a secondary play on SPECIAL MISSILE at a juicy $17+ also with BET365. Very consistent galloper who returned well enough without starring, and we know from last prep, once he gets going he can simply keep winning. May need another run before showing best, but at the price, happy to take the punt and importantly has a 2nd from two second up runs. Unbeaten at Rosehill (2 wins from 2 starts, both last prep). Main dangers OSBORNE BULLS, STONEBROOK, TRIBAL WISDOM and UP ‘N’ ROLLING.

SUGGEST: BEAU GESTE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5+, SPECIAL MISSILE (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (5, 8, 10, 11 / 13 / F / 4), (5, 8, 10, 11 / F / 5, 8, 10, 11 / 4, 13) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $12.55+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN @ $4+, ECUADOR @ $9+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: DANCERS @ $41+, AMBITIOUS @ $19+

#happypunting