SATURDAY, MARCH 31, 2018
Racing at CAULFIELD, with fine weather in Melbourne, and looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD with the rail out +6M. Hoping for an even track (pace dependant), but expecting no disadvantage to be closer to the pace/fence, but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1100m, hence just the one bend to content with so barriers not ‘as’ critical, however SUNSET WATCH looks the one that stands out on exposed form although as short as you would want at $2.40+ with BET365. Nothing crazy, but a WIN only play to start the day. Had the Adelaide visitor GYTRASH been here I would have probably taken on given a possible speed battle up front, however GYTRASH hasn’t accepted and as a result SUNSET WATCH should be able to cross easily enough. Be sure to keep a close eye on markets, especially for the debutants and take a look at condition in the yard.
SUGGEST: SUNSET WATCH (WIN) @ $2.40+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 2: Next is a handicap again over 1100m, and happy to take the punt on *SULLIVAN BAY* at a juicy $18+ with CENTREBET. Was terrible last time when second up, but prior returned well and absolutely loves the Caulfield 1100m. Can bowl along and make own luck up front at a juicy price, which I’ll actually make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Then, a complimentary play on OUR GLADIATOR @ $5.20+ (BETFAIR) who is going for a hat trick of wins and should be camp right behind SULLIVAN BAY and ready to pounce. Happy to simply play around the two in what is an even race as the market suggests.
SUGGEST: *SULLIVAN BAY* (EACH WAY) @ $18+, OUR GLADIATOR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.20+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 4 / F / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 78 over 1400m. Massive field, plenty of legitimate chances, but no world beaters here and as a result am going to keep this nice and simple with CATESBY at $4.60+ with BET365. Drawn terribly, but there doesn’t look to be much pace on paper at all, so should be able to cross comfortably and as long as that eventuates, should be very hard to catch. Primary play ahead of RUNSON at a juicy $15.20+ price with SPORTSBETTING. Big weight, but has the runs on the board and that why and gets in ‘well enough’ after the claim and can be closer to the pace here which is key. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: CATESBY (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.60+, RUNSON (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $15.20, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 14 / F / 2, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is a handicap for the 3YO fillies over 1100m. Wide open race with plenty of chances, and in a big field, that means plenty of value on offer. Like a couple here in particular at juicy prices, in the form of **GOLDEN LUSTRE** at $11.20+ (SPORTSBETTING) and FOX SWIFT at $26+ at BET365. **GOLDEN LUSTRE** should have no excuses here from the good gate and looks excellent each way value at a double figure price. Keen each way and happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day, despite the double figure price tag. While FOX SWIFT is a stakes winner who can now improve after a couple of runs this prep. Again, throw a blanket over the rest in a deep race.
SUGGEST: **GOLDEN LUSTRE** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $11.20+, FOX SWIFT (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 13 / F / 5, 13), (F / 13 / F / 1, 2, 4, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Next is the Jack Elliott Handicap over 2000m and there does look to be plenty of pace on paper here, hence tactics and how track is playing is key. Tough race again, in a big field. Had WOLFENDALE drawn a gate, I’d probably be clearly in that camp, but from barrier 20, will need luck/very good ride. Think safer play here is INDERNILE at a double figure price also at $10+ with most operators. Can be on pace, but importantly can has the luxury of settling just behind the pace should it be hectic early which could prove crucial here. Then, also a play on WHOOMPH at $21+ with BET365. Right down in the weights after the claim, and no disgrace when smashed last time (beaten 11L) behind Cliff’s Edge and against the pattern. Run prior was good enough to make a case here at a juicy price. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, throw a blanket over the rest! Very tough!
SUGGEST: INDERNILE (EACH WAY) @ $10+, WHOOMPH (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 17 / F / 2, 17) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is a benchmark 84 over 1800m. With a bit of pace taken out of the race, like SAVATAG here at a better than expected $9.50+ with BET365. Is low flying, having won past four and eying off five wins in succession across NZ, South Australia and now stiffest test in Melbourne. Distance the query (untried)but can hopefully be right their ideally dictating terms and should they leave him alone can definitely be hard to catch. Then, a secondary play on the not so consistent *PRIMA* at $31+ with BET365. Not so consistent, however bobs up in these types of races from time to time and good enough odds to take the punt here. Was actually very good first up, poor second up and hopefully excellent here. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers TOP OF THE RANGE, NO COMMITMENT (who won well for us last time) and POW WOW who will be looking for longer but wouldn’t shock in this grade.
SUGGEST: SAVATAG (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $9.50+, *PRIMA* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (8, 11, 15 / F / 8, 11, 15 / 6, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Next is the Group 3 Easter Cup over 2000m and there originally looked to be plenty of pace on paper here, however that has evened out with the scratchings of the Lloyd Williams duo in particular. Hard to ignore the form of STEPS here on debut in Australia at $7+ with UNIBET. Beat Johannes Vermeer last year and JV would be a very short favourite here. Also think GOLDEN MANE has done nothing wrong and deserves chance here at $9.40+ with BETFAIR. Given the odds on offer for both, happy to suggest both on WIN only basis’ to ensure decent profit as long as either salute. Main danger ODEON.
SUGGEST: STEPS (WIN) @ $7+, GOLDEN MANE (WIN) @ $9.40+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 5, 9 / F / 4, 5, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is another Group 3, this time over 1400m. Going to keep this one short and sweet in the form of **THEANSWERMYFRIEND** at $4.20+ with SPORTSBET and CROWNBET. Just reeled in first up for new stable and will obviously be helped by any on pace bias here. You’d expect at a bare minimum, on pacers will be getting every chance, pace dependant. Looks to be very hard to beat and will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger GLENALL who I rate, however the 1400m is the obvious query/unknown but can most definitely win, while WIDGEE TURF can bounce back and SO SI BON.
SUGGEST: **THEANSWERMYFRIEND** (EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 9, 10, 13 / F / 6, 9, 10, 13), (F / 9, 10, 13 / F / 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish a benchmark 84 over 1200m. Like HIGHLAND BEAT here at a tidy $12+ with most operators. Will get the right run and most importantly gets in extremely well at the weights here dropping 4.5kg to try and turn tables on key rivals here and think better here around the bend, as opposed to the straight. Also want something on PICK ME UP first up at $9.50+ with CENTREBET. Looks well suited this grade and has excuses last prep. Can atone here with a first up win in another competitive affair. Finally, want a peanut each way on THE ILIAD where you’ll be able to write your own ticket, currently $126+ with UBET and CENTREBET. Had a dabble last time when beaten 22.8L, which was obviously too bad to be true and vets confirmed atrial fibrillation which is hardly ideal. Just in case. Main dangers MILWAUKEE, STAR SEALER and HANDSOME THIEF.
SUGGEST: HIGHLAND BEAT (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $12+, PICK ME UP (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $9.50+, THE ILIAD (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $126+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 6, 12 / F / 5, 10, 14), (1, 6, 12 / F / 1, 6, 12 / 5, 10, 14) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Average odds $18.95+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: GOLDEN LUSTRE @ $11.20+, THEANSWERMYFRIEND @ $4.20+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: SULLIVAN BAY @ $18+, PRIMA @ $31+