14 April 2018 (The Championships - Week 2 - Group 1 racing at Randwick)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, APRIL 14, 2018

 

Racing at RANDWICK for week 2 of The Championships and incredibly fine weather in Sydney again! Penetrometer 5.19, and currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to RANDWICK with the rail out +3M, after being in the TRUE position last week, when those closer to the pace had an advantage. Hoping for an even track (pace dependant), again expecting no disadvantage to be closer to the pace, but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the two year olds in the Listed China Horse Club Mile over you guessed it 1600m. Doesn’t look to be much pace on paper here, hence pace/tactics and how track is playing, set to be key. From the much better gate, happy to give ARISTOCRATIC MISS another chance at $4.80+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR and CROWNBET, after being on last time when very good from the rear from a wide gate. That’s been the case past three when forced to position further back but don’t see why they don’t push forward from barrier 2. Then, also want to play BOLD ARIAL at a juicy $14+ with POINTSBET. Will be right on the pace, and form around Fiesta and Aylmerton looks good for a race like this. Main dangers RHEINGAU and FUTOOH.

SUGGEST: ARISTOCRATIC MISS (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.80+, BOLD ARIAL (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (9, 10 / 6, 11 / F / 6, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: Next is a Listed event for the three year olds, over 1400m. Even race, pace/tatics key with speed map a little hard to predict with absolute certainty. Slight lean to **RENEWAL** here at $4.40+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR for the in-form Hawkes stable. Can ill afford to do things wrong, but in the right stable to correct things for this better grade race. May well lead this group and if so can be very hard to catch. Happy to make a BEST VLAUE bet of the day. Main danger the class in the field TORVILL whose chances improve if ridden more positively from the better gate after drawing 11, 9, 11, 8, 10 at past five, but draws 3 here.  

SUGGEST: **RENEWAL** (EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 3: Now for the Group 2 Percy Skyes Stakes for the 2YO fillies over 1200m. Very competitive race, most with legitimate winning claims. Slight lean here with FIESTA at a tidy $6.40+ (BETFAIR) after we have been on past two when running very well on both occasions without winning. Was enormous in the Slipper from wide gate and impossible position, but was only 3.3L at the finish. The one to beat and hoping they settle not too far behind them and ideally one off the fence. Also, want something on OUTBACK BARBIE at a tidy $10+ with POINTSBET. Has done very little wrong in short career and well and truly up to this grade. Happy to play around the two, but throw a blanket over the rest and nothing would surprise.

SUGGEST: FIESTA (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6.40+, OUTBACK BARBIE (WIN / EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 4 / F / 2, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Next is the Provincial Championships Final over 1400m and there looks to be much better pace in the race here. This is tough and looks a near raffle, which normally means delve deep and look for value, however in this instance have to go with the Group 1 Coolmore form, and that means favourite JUST DREAMING at $4+ with POINTSBET. Beaten just 1L in hot Group 1 last time, which means we need to enforce the ‘best horse’ rule on this occasion in this grade, despite the sticky gate. Hugh Bowman to hopefully offset that and hopefully track even enough to win away from the fence, pace dependant. Main danger MANHATTAN MIST who was only 0.7L from the top pick two back and had excuses so must be a big chance here. Throw a blanket over the rest.

SUGGEST: JUST DREAMING (EACH WAY) @ $4+, FIRST FOUR (5 / F / F / 1), (F / 1, 5 / F / 1, 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Next is the Group 2 Arrowfield Sprint for the 3YOs over 1200m and as always a cracking race. White-hot field and you’d be a brave man/woman to say anything can’t win. Like PARIAH here ta a tidy $7+ with POINTSBET, CROWNBET, BET365 and BETFAIR. Won the trial which had us find Spright a couple of weeks’ back and now hopefully get another winner out of the trial although at about half the odds, but still good each way value. You’d expect this to be run in very good time, hence need a runner capable of running around or below the 1.09.00 mark and that’s what the colt did three back when second to Menari in the Run to Rose also at Group 2 level. Needs to repeat that run and ideally even improve. Main dangers VIRIDINE, I AM EXCITED and BOOKER but doesn’t end there. Super race!  

SUGGEST: PARIAH (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 8, 10 / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 6: And now for the first of four consecutive Group 1s, starting with the Australian Oaks for the 3YO fillies to be run over 2400m. Good race, but don’t see any reason why HIYAAM can’t win again here at a respectable enough $5+ with UBET. Has attracted good early money and rightly so. Will make own luck up front and looks to be the one who has really made the transition this prep. Then, also want to have a WIN only play on ALOISIA at $7+ with POINTSBET. Prior to this prep was the class filly, however came back looking a much more dour filly (that was clear and known before her first run, remember Rimraam at 30/1? I sure do…J) and as a result looks set to peak ironically in the race where she got smashed in the Spring when an almost unbackable favourite in the Vic Oaks. Happy to play around the two, main dangers SAVVY COUP, LUVALUVA and DANZDANZDANCE. Doesn’t end there.

SUGGEST: HIYAAM (EACH WAY) @ $5+, ALOISIA (WIN) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 5, 8 / F / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: Next is the Queen Elizabeth where superstar WINX goes for 25 straight wins and having drawn 10 of 10, this is a no bet race for mine and I just want to hope like hell the superstar can get the job done. Besides Kementari, probably has the next best three here in the form of HAPPY CLAPPER, HUMIDOR and GAILO CHOP, especially at this distance and as a result, this won’t be any walk in the part, nor should it be in a Group 1 worth more than $4 million! She’ll have the nation behind her, she’s the best I’ve personally ever seen, but you just know she needs to get the job done here or the doubters and knockers will come out in force. Go you good thing!

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%) 

 

Race 8: Next is the Group 1 Sydney Cup run over the infamous two mile, 3200m distance. Very good race, with plenty of legitimate winning chances. Like a few here at juicy double figure price tags in the form of old mate WHO SHOT THEBARMAN at $16+ (POINTSBET), LORD FANDANGO at $16+ (most operators) and AUVRAY at $14+ with UBET. Given the odds on offer, happy to stagger plays around the three. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN put in the perfect Sydney Cup trial last time and if it wasn’t for his age, then that run would equate to being close to favourite here. Proven two-mile performer at the highest level and he doesn’t know how old he is. LORD FANDANGO I would’ve backed in a Melbourne Cup last Spring after what was a sensational run in the Caulfield Cup, but wasn’t in the mix and run two back in the Australia Cup was very good against the pattern. Was okay last start on unsuitable wet track, enough to hopefully say the Sydney way of going shouldn’t be an issue, as it is the main query. Finally AUVRAY gets in very well at the weights here, looks like 3200m will suit and is in career best form for mine. Main dangers ALMANDIN (best horse), PRESTWICK (the big unknown here from Japan, their gallopers always seem to go well here) and SIR CHARLES ROAD who was very good last time and gets in very well at the weights here. Very good edition of the race.      

SUGGEST: WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $16+, LORD FANDANGO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $16+, AUVRAY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6, 13 / 2, 8, 9 / F / 2, 8, 9), (1, 6, 13 / F / 1, 6, 13 / 2, 8, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 9: Penultimate event is the last of the Group 1s in the form of the Coolmore Legacy and as you always get with these Group 1 fillies and mare events, especially over the mile, very competitive. There’s simply plenty of chances, with pace/tactics/how track is playing and most likely plenty of luck in running all set to play parts in the result here. Going to play around a few at big odds here, each of which I obviously believe are realistic winning chances despite their price tag. They are *SAMOVARE* at $29+ (POINTSBET), ECKSTEIN at $20+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR, POINTSBET) and finally longshot *NETTOYER* at a very juicy $61+ with POINTSBET. SAMOVARE has been going well without winning but would’ve been set for this mile contest and the extra distance looks ideal. Drawn well, will get right pace/conditions here to ensure no excuses. Comes down to ability now. Despite us being super keen on Shoals in the Myer Classic on Derby day, we also liked ECKSTEIN at 60/1 who was inches from a huge boilover (and would’ve been much better for our quaddie ;-)). Back to that trip and level and looks right in this on current form. Probably doesn’t have the consistency of many of those shorter in the market, but is more than capable on her day. Then, *NETTOYER* who is the real blowout hope here and underrated for mine. Been close in very good races against many of the fancied types and despite dropping down from 1900m, form v price warrants a play and happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. And given the price on offer for *SAMOVARE*, and upon reflection of the rest of the card/suggestions, will also make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers DIXIE BLOSSOMS, SILENT SEDITION, PAYROLL and PROMPT RESPONSE. Doesn’t end there.

SUGGEST: *SAMOVARE* (EACH WAY – PRIMARY) @ $26+, ECKSTEIN (EACH WAY – PRIMARY) @ $20+, *NETTOYER* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 4, 5, 10 / F / 13, 14, 16), (3, 4, 5, 10 / F / 3, 4, 5, 10 / 13, 14, 16) (CONFIDENCE 25%) 

 

Race 10: We finish a huge day and another year of The Championships with the Group 2 TAB Sapphire Stakes, for the fillies and mares over 1200m. Don’t see any reason why **QUILISTA** can’t win again at a respectable enough $4.80+ here with most operators. Been simply brilliant winning past two and when the Weir stable have them winning, they normally continue winning. Any bias/advantage to those up front will obviously only help. Confident enough to make another BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, similarly LUBITON at a juicy $19+ with POINTSBET. Cost us dearly on Cox Plate day when we were super keen on Savapinski who had to chase this mare all the way and as a result remained 2nd from start to finish. Normally flies fresh, on good ground and from barrier 1 can lead and make own luck up front. Chances are the two sit 1-2, hence obviously don’t want them slitting each other’s throats. Shinn and Lane surely smart enough to keep enough in the tank. Main dangers SPRIGHT (so good to us last time against the pattern of the day), GHISONI and SUGAR BELLA.

SUGGEST: **QUILISTA** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.80+, LUBITON (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (F / 7, 10 / F / 7, 10), (2, 3, 11 / F / 2, 3, 11 / 7, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $14.08+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: RENEWAL @ $4.40+, QUILISTA @ $4.80+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: SAMOVARE @ $26+, NETTOYER @ $61+

#happypunting