14 April 2018 (Racing at Caulfield)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

CAULFIELD

SATURDAY, APRIL 14, 2018

 

Racing at CAULFIELD with thundery weather forecast so a bit hard to predict with confidence, what we will end up with. Currently assuming a SOFT (5) surface.

RAIL: +9M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD with the rail out +9M. If dry I ‘d be leaning toward those closer to the pace all day, but now with the forecast rain (the actual amount unknown 2- 8mm?) should even things out somewhat. As a result, very important to keep a close eye on early races and following any rainfall, for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1200m and a fair bit of guesswork involved here with several debutantes, and one some quite unsighted. Slight lean towards VIRTUAL INSANITY at $5+ with UBET and CROWNBET. Was good on debut and was enough for them to head north for the Group 3 Pago Pago when never in the mix. Has had a chance to recover from that outing and can bounce back here, depending how track is playing, given sticky draw and will as a result get back. Throw a blanket over the rest, who knows?!

SUGGEST: VIRTUAL INSANITY (EACH WAY) @ $5+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 78 over 1400m. Been waiting for one here in AMORTENTIA since seeing trial when defeated Shoals prior to Shoals going to Sydney and winning a Group 1. Spewing I missed win last time at Sandown and despite the even shorter price here at $3+ (most operators) happy to play in this grade.  Throw a blanket over the rest, once again.

SUGGEST: AMORTENTIA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Next is a handicap for the three-year-old fillies over the mile (1600m). Hard to go past PALAZZO VECCHIO here at $2.94+ (BETFAIR) dropping in grade, from Group 2 and 3 level at each run this prep and far from disgraced on any occasion, just missing on two occasions in particular. Main dangers SAVACOOL and SHEEZDASHING.

SUGGEST: PALAZZO VECCHIO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.94+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 11 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Next is a benchmark 84 over 1700m. Wide open race, and a big field assembled, with pace/tactics and how track is playing set to be key. Like a couple here at juicy double figure prices in the form of MAGIC CONSUL at $11+ (most operators) and MY PAISANN at $13+ with UBET. MAGIC CONSUL was looking like the end might be near early this prep, but was super last time when wide and just missing and think 100m shorter here works well, just looked to peak on run in the last 100m. No harder here. Then, a secondary play on JAMINZAH at a very juicy $31+ with most operators. Another who has been a little plain first couple of runs this prep, but legitimate excuses and can improve third up and important seems to go well the Victorian way of going. Happy to play around the three all at good prices.

SUGGEST: MAGIC CONSUL (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $11+, JAMINZAH (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 7 / F / 1, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Next is a Listed event for the three year olds to be run over 2400m. Again, going for some value here away from those deep in the market in another decently sized field. Think best value lies with MAHEERA at $14+ (SPORTSBET) and CREEDENCE at the same $14+  price with BETFAIR, ahead of a secondary longer shot play on GRAND CASINO at a big $41+ with most operators. MAHEERA finally broken maiden status last time, but despite taking a while to get there, this stable (Weir) have a knack of keeping winners winning, once they start winning. The win and recent form is good enough for a race like this. CREEDENCE hit the line well last time in a race of little change and should get better circumstances here to make even more ground. Finally, *GRAND CASINO* was simply too far back (way further than even CREEDANCE) and hence no chance first up, so can both get better conditions/pace here to suit, not to mention being fitter second up and better over this longer trip. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers HAN XIN, WOLFENDALE and WON WON TOO at a big price also.

SUGGEST: MAHEERA (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $14+, CREEDANCE (WIN / EACH WAY – PRIMARY) @ $14+, *GRAND CASINO* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (roving 5, 6, 12 / F), (1, 2, 8 / F / 1, 2, 8 / 5, 6, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is a handicap over 2000m. Keeping this one simple and going with the best horse rule in top weight **SPECTROSCOPE** at $3.80+ with UBET, SPORTSBET and CROWNBET. Group 3 winner, last prep (only three starts back) only beaten 1.3L to Kiwia over this exact distance and a repeat of that run would most likely be winning this and arguably with something up the sleeve. Both runs this prep have been good, looks very well suited this grade, the step up in trip is ideal, and importantly also handles give in the ground. Ticks all the boxes and actually happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day with a bit of confidence. Main dangers BERISHA, GOLDEN MANE and VELOX.

SUGGEST: **SPECTROSCOPE** (EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 7 / F / 2, 4, 7 / 1), (2, 4, 7 / 1 / F / 2, 4, 7) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 7: Next is another handicap for the three year olds, this time over 1200m. Race turned upside down big a number of very important, key scratchings. Slight lean towards REILMARTINI here at $7+ with both BET365 and BETFAIR and there looks to have been solid money for it already, which is important as I think one of (arguably ‘the’) main danger is stablemate ICONOCLASM at a similar $8+ price with UBET. Be interesting to keep an eye on both and stagger bets in line with the monetary support, although I must say the Weir stable do have a knack of having the lesser backed runner saluting at times. Anyways, I’ve talked myself out of a single each way play and instead suggest a WIN only play on them both. Both in form and look well suited in a race like this, especially now with so many key omissions. Main dangers REGIMEN, WILLIAM THOMAS and ANDAZ.

SUGGEST: REILMARTINI (WIN) @ $7+, ICONOCLASM (WIN) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (5, 6, 7 / 10, 12 / F / 10, 12), (5, 6, 7 / F / 5, 6, 7 / 10, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is another benchmark 84 over 1200m. similar to the previous race, scratchings of critical importance here, led by HANDSOME THIEF who may have been scared off by the inside gate on a potentially wet track? In saying that, as long as there is steady to good support, like **I BOOGI** here at a respectable $6.80+ (BETFAIR) who plain and simply flies fresh. You get many good fresh runners, but then you get those who simply excel big time and this guy is one of those. As a result, connections need to be patient to almost have him going around fresh each run, which obviously takes time. A reproduction of super first up win last prep at the Valley has him winning this for mine. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers MILWAUKEE, BRAHMOS, HIGHLAND BEAT and WRITTEN ERA.

SUGGEST: **I BOOGI** (EACH WAY) @ $6.80+, FIRST FOUR (1, 10, 12, 14 / F / 1, 10, 12, 14 / 15) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 9: We finish with a handicap for the fillies and mares over 1100m which includes our very own IF NOT NOW WHEN, who bless her soul struggles to run a “bad” race, but unfortunately has a long list of things that have to go “right” in order to win and as a result a lazy 742 days since her last win…when we were riding the wave with 2 wins from 2 starts both in very good prizemoney events. Anyways, that’s racing, and as much as she is always capable and we’re always hoping today’s the day “everything” goes right, cannot be suggesting a play and to make things worse she’s actually terribly weighted. Rating of 68 v DEJA BLUE who has a rating of 86 and they carry the same weight, which is obviously less than ideal. Anyways, onto suggested plays and happy to finish in the camp of several at odds in what looks a more open race than the market suggests. Especially given the uncertainty with the weather and how the track is playing by the time race 9 comes around. Let’s start with LADY ESPRIT at $11+ (UBET) who I’ve given a blowout chance to win black type races in recent times, hence although potentially coming to the end of her prep, has the class to get the job done here. Did beat Snitty Kitty only three starts ago here at Caulfield. Next, I want a play on one I mentioned above in DEJA BLUE who is very well weighted with 54kg with all those beneath much lesser type from a ratings perspective but not getting any weight advantage to offset the differential. Last start was too bad to be true, as backed up by the stewards report (lame) so as long as she has no ill effects from that run, is right up to this level at a very juicy $31+ with UBET, TOPBETTA and BET365. Then, finally another longshot play on one who always seems to come out over the odds in CERTAIN ELLIE at a very juicy $51+ price with BET365. Consistent type, who bobs up often enough (7 wins from 25 starts) which is a decent strike rate for one who is constantly “overs”, which is right up our alley. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day at the very juicy price. Main dangers COOL PASSION and SULLIVAN BAY.

SUGGEST: LADY ESPRIT (WIN / EACH WAY – PRIMARY) @ $11+, DEJA BLUE (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $31+, *CERTAIN ELLIE* (EACH WAY - TERTIARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4 / F / 1, 4 / 2, 5, 10), (1, 4 / 2, 5, 10 / F / 2, 5, 10) (CONFIDENCE 25%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $15.85+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: SPECTROSCOPE @ $3.80+, I BOOGI @ $6.80+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: GRAND CASINO @ $41+, CERTAIN ELLIE @ $51+

#happypunting