SATURDAY, APRIL 21, 2018
Racing at CAULFIELD with fine weather in Melbourne, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD with the rail back in the TRUE position, after it was out +9M here last week. Hoping for an even track (pace dependant), but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the Vobis Gold Distaff for the fillies and mares over 1400m and this one looks very straight forward in the form of FRENCH EMOTION who should be justifying the short $2.10+ price tag and prove too good in this grade. The clear class horse of the field and doesn’t look badly weighted with 59kg considering. Go back three starts and was 2L behind the winner Shoals in the Group 1 Myer Classic on Derby day. Suggested good WIN only play to start the day.
SUGGEST: FRENCH EMOTION (WIN) @ $2.10+ (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 2: Next is the Vobis Gold Mile and simply looking at the ‘best horse’ rule once again in the form of WIDGEE TURF at a respectable enough $3+ with SPORTSBET and UNIBET. The good thing is he can settle closer and doesn’t need to get too far back, however in the smaller field should be within striking range regardless and last start it simply didn’t matter flying home to victory after being 16th/15th at the 800m and 400m respectively. Main dangers KEN’S DREAM and SO SI BON.
SUGGEST: WIDGEE TURF (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3+, FIRST FOUR (4, 5 / 3 / F / 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 3: Next is the 2YO Vobis Sires over 1200m. Don’t see any reason to jump off THRILLSTER at a tidy $5.50+ with BET365. Has done simply nothing wrong in short career and despite some guesswork, this doesn’t seem much harder than last start with in the Vobis Gold Rush. Main dangers DES MOINES, TYCOON TILY, TANK ATTACK, GOLDEN SCRIPT and COZHECANCAN.
SUGGEST: THRILLSTER (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (3, 8, 10, 12, 16 / F / 3, 8, 10, 12, 16 / 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Next is the Vobis Gold Heath over 2000m. And at the risk of sounding like a broken record and backing another shorter in the market, going with the ‘best horse’ rule once again here in the form of KIWIA at $2.25+ with CROWNBET. Was very good in much better race than this first up, and then impossible to make ground at Bendigo, hence was hoping we might sneak a better price, but the bookies haven’t missed the strong form either. Barring a drift, will probably need to be on a WIN only basis.
SUGGEST: KIWIA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.25+ (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 5: Next is the Vobis Gold Dash for the 3YO over 1100m. I don’t like what is happening on this card, as you’ll know I’m all about value and always striving to find real juicy value and longshots, but how do you go past NATURE STRIP here at $1.90+ with most operators. Simply put as long as transition to new stable, has no negative effects and can simply reproduce anything near past form, then should be very hard to beat here. Solid, primary WIN only play, and then a secondary each way play on SNITZEPEG at a more than tidy $17+ with SPORTSBET. Was excellent last prep at the highest level and despite a first up record which will force some to dismiss/risk, happy to play given the odds on offer. And finally a play on *MISS VIXEN* at $26+ (BET365) who was simply brilliant last time against the pattern, unfortunately reeling us in aboard Golden Lustre at odds also. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.
SUGGEST: NATURE STRIP (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $1.90+, SNITZEPEG (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $17+, *MISS VIXEN* (EACH WAY – TERIARY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / F / 2, 13) (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is the 3YOVobis Sires over the mile (1600m). Hate to do it again, and the risk here is even when a card looks quite straightforward, it rarely works out that way, but just not sure how you can go past CLIFF’S EDGE at $1.60+ with BET365. Clearly the ‘best horse’ and at set weights you simply go past. They might try and put on some pressure, but this boy is tough and from barrier 6 can sit one out one back if Mott decides that will work best. Should be just winning, looks the logical one out quaddie leg and anchor for your multies.
SUGGEST: CLIFF’S EDGE (WIN) @ $1.60+ (CONFIDENCE 70%)
Race 7: Now for the Listed Bel Esprit Stakes over 1100m. Disappointed by the scratching of SECRET AGENDA who I thought looked well placed here despite last start miss. With the class mare out of the picture, then all of a sudden best value seems to be with the underrated but ultra-consistent **BONS AWAY** at $6.50+ with most operators. Always running at or near the top level and rarely disappointing or far away. Many may look at the distance form and see 0 placings from 1 start, but Oakleigh Plate run at Group 1 level only two starts back just needs to be reproduced to go extremely close here. From barrier 2 has the option to be right there behind the leaders and ready to pounce as they straighten for home. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, a secondary play on *FIRST AMONG EQUALS* at $21+ with most operators. Was a big drifter pre-race last time, so obviously not ready to fire first up, despite very good first up record, but similarly second up record is strong. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers PROPERTY and SPRIGHTLY LASS who will definitely give them all something to catch up front.
SUGGEST: **BONS AWAY** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6.50+, *FIRST AMONG EQUALS* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (10, 12 / 3 / F / 4), (F / 10, 12 / 3 / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Vobis Gold Sprint and yet another shorter priced runner, but at sufficient value and for mine another clear cut case for the ‘best horse’ rule to be activated. RICH CHARM looks incredibly well suited here at $3.20+ with BET365 which is very good value for mine. Has this gelding been trained by a Weir, Waller, Hayes, or similar, we’d be looking at closer to red figures, but instead $3.20 looks a very good price for a proven, class galloper. At the price, happy to make the BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, want a secondary play on GLENROWAN PRINCE at a juicy $17+ with CROWNBET, TOPBETTA and BET365. Absolutely low flying and despite jump in grade, it’s not necessarily massive and a hat trick of consecutive wins is there for the taking.
SUGGEST: **RICH CHARM** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.20+, GLENROWAN PRINCE (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2 / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 9: We finish the Listed Troa Anniversary Vase to be run over 1400m. Was happy to have another go at SCHISM but now out. Wide, open finish for mine despite another 1-2 must shorter in the market, but on this occasion not offering sufficient value for mine. As a result, prefer to back a couple at 3-4 times the price in the form of FASTNET TEMPEST at $10+ (most operators) and AMOVATIO at $13.50+ with BETFAIR. FASTNET TEMPEST has always shown promise and run last time (especially given pulled up with ‘slow recovery’ and ‘thumps’), while first up ‘flop’ totally understandable given short spring distance. AMOVATIO has had excuses of late, but looks to be going very well and importantly gets in well weights wise here with rating down after a growing run of outs since last win. Looks well suited here, in the first time for a long time. Main danger LAND OF PLENTY.
SUGGEST: FASTNET TEMPEST (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, AMOVATIO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $13.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 3, 6, 13 / F), (F / 13 / F / 3, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $6.20+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: BONS AWAY @ $6.50+, RICH CHARM @ $3.20+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: MISS VIXEN @ $26+, FIRST AMONG EQUALS @ $21+