SATURDAY, APRIL 21, 2018
Racing at RANDWICK again for the third week straight and fine weather once again! It’s taken years but the bad weather we always seem to experience this time of year has been non-existent. Penetrometer 5.07, and currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +6M (1600m – WINNING POST, +4M (REMAINDER). We head to RANDWICK with the rail out +6M for the most ‘important’ part, after being out +3M last week. Hoping for an even track (pace dependant), was thinking leaderish last week, but that didn’t eventuate, but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the return of the TAB Highways, on this occasion over 1200m. Bit of pace on paper here, so tactics and how track is playing will be important. Can’t split two here in KEYMASTER at $7+ (POINTSBET) and COUNT CUMANI at the exact same price with same operator, hence will simply back them both to WIN to kick start the day. Effectively means we are backing either to win at around the $3.50 mark. Both are the two that have / can run serious time (1.09 flat) and should appreciate the pace on up front. Main dangers NIC’S VENDETTA and ORI ON FIRE.
SUGGEST: KEYMASTER (WIN) @ $7+, COUNT CUMANI (WIN) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 3, 4, 5 / F / 1, 3, 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 85 over 1200m and a fair bit of guesswork here given so many here are first up from breaks, and some others freshened up since last run. Plenty of legitimate chances but leaning towards TEST THE WORLD at $5.60+ with BETFAIR. Flies fresh (despite missing last time), loves the 1200m trip and if wound up ready to fire first up should be going very close in what is a competitive affair. Main dangers ANATOLA, DISSOLUTE, CRAFTY COP and IN TIMES OF WAR.
SUGGEST: TEST THE WORLD (EACH WAY) @ $5.60+, FIRST FOUR (5, 6, 7, 11 / F / 5, 6, 7, 11 / 4) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Next is the Group 3 Tab Hall Mark Stakes to be run over 1200m. And as much as he still hasn’t ended up first past the post for a long time (won two back on protest, when surely would’ve won) thinking the form is with DOTHRAKI to get the job done here at a short enough, but good enough (just) $3.30+ with BETFAIR. Then, a secondary longshot play on our old mate who has been very good to us in the past at similar odds, *ISORICH* at $51+ with POINTSBET. Ultra-consistent and always over the odds and at the price happy to make a BEST LONSHOT of the day.
SUGGEST: DOTHRAKI (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.30+, *ISORICH* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2 / F / 6) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Next is the Group 3 Frank Packer Plate for the 3YOs over 2000m. Competitive affair, plenty of chances. Best value for mine lies with PRIMITIVO at $8+ (POINTSBET) and ICON OF DUBAI at a juicy $17+ with most operators. PRIMITIVO was nothing short of sensational two back at Canberra, then heavily backed last time in a good race when wide with no cover and entitled to fold, which he did. Happy to give another chance here but would need to rip out a PB, which I think he can. ICON OF DUBAI has always promised, and time to deliver the goods. Similarly, up in grade here and needs a PB but capable and signs might have returned better this prep. Main dangers TANGLED, TEMPRADO and HOLY SNOW but doesn’t end there in a very competitive affair.
SUGGEST: PRIMITIVO (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8+, ICON OF DUBAI (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 6 / F / 1, 3, 6 / 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Next is a Group 3 for the 3YO fillies over 1400m and as you’d expect a competitive affair. Might lean towards another who loves being the bridesmaid, but form is impossible to ignore in the form of PROBLEM SOLVER at $5+ with most operators. Low flying without winning, drawn perfectly, there shouldn’t be any excuses if good enough. Then, a secondary play on *FROLIC who I’m persisting with at $19+ with SPORTSBET. Get back style obviously means a bit needs to go her way to win, but looks to be flying given late sectionals she consistently produces. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.
SUGGEST: PROBLEM SOLVER (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5+, *FROLIC (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 7 / F / 1, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is the Group 1 Champagne Stakes for the two year olds over 1600m. Leaning towards **SEABROOK** here at $6.50+ with SPORTSBETTING. Doesn’t know how to run a bad race and has shown is good enough at the highest 2YO level so happy to play in another competitive race on an each way basis. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **SEABROOK** (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Next is another Group 1 with the All Aged Stakes and like BRAVE SMASH here at a nice each way price of $7.50+ with CENTREBET. Put s line through last start disappointing effort and would be fave, good horses are allowed one bad one, and reports are all subsequent track work hints it may have been a one off. Banking on that and happy to make another BEST VALE bet, hence one for each for the two Group 1s. Main danger Secondary play IT’S SOMEWHAT at a juicy $27.50+ with SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU. Has saluted for us before at an even bigger price, but can definitely run a big race fresh. Main danger TRAPEZE ARTIST.
SUGGEST: **BRAVE SMASH** (EACH WAY – PRIMARY) @ $7.50+, IT’S SOMEWHAT (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $27.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 4, 10 / F), (F / 10 / F / 2, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Group 3 JRA Plate over 200m, with a big and competitive field assembled, and that equates to value. Three pronged, staggered play though MAURUS at $13+ (CENTREBET), RISING RED at $20+ (BETFAIR) and *VENGEUR MASQUE* at $34+ with CENTREBET. All capable at this level, looks well suited these conditions/grade, are in form/ticking over nicely but importantly distance now suits them all. Happy to play around the three given the juicy odds on offer. Happy to make VENGEUR MASQUE a BEAT LONGSHOT bet of the day at the big price.
SUGGEST: MAURUS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $13+, RISING RED (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $20+, *VENGEUR MASQUE* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 7, 14 / F / 2, 7, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 99 over 1400m and happy to give SPECIAL MISSILE another chance at a tidy $9+ with SPORTSBET. Need to list to turn table on red hot fave OSBORNE BULLS but at nearly 4 x times the price, I think can with 2kg pull in the weights (not enough alone) but most importantly can be fitter/better third up from the break. Also, something on NEW UNIVERSE at $11+ with SPORTSBET and UBET. Like the jump back up to 1400m after competing over shorter distances of late to hopefully inject the right level of acceleration into the legs. Main danger OSBORNE BULLS, ahead of 4, 7, 9, 14.
SUGGEST: SPECIAL MISSILE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, NEW UNIVERSE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (roving 7, 11, 13 / F), (F / 4, 8, 9, 14 / F / 11, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $14.79+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: SEABROOK @ $6.50+, BRAVE SMASH @ $7.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: ISORICH @ $51+, VENGEUR MASQUE @ $34+