SATURDAY, APRIL 28, 2018
Racing at CAULFIELD with fine weather in Melbourne, hence currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD with the rail out +3M, after being in the TRUE position last week when the track played fairly. Hoping for an even track (pace dependant), but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide, and doubt there would be any disadvantage to be on pace/closer to the fence.
Race 1: We start with the three year old fillies over the mile (1600m) and decent pace on paper here, so most should get their chance. Was thinking ANGELIC SPIRIT who has been scratched, hence the obvious is now the stablemate in SNOGGING at a short enough, but good enough (just) price of $3.05+ with BETFAIR. Has the form on the board, and only need to go back three starts and was beaten 5.25L in a Wakeful. Primary WIN only play, and also a secondary each way play at odds on UPTOWN GAL at $14.50+ with BETFAIR. Will appreciate the step up to 1600m, and did have excuses last time, most importantly represents good value here in this grade.
SUGGEST: SNOGGING (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3+, UPTOWN GAL (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $14.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2 / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 2: Next is an event for the mares over 1200m and on this occasion not necessarily a great deal of pace, hence pace/tactics and how track is playing will be important. For this reason, looking at the two at the top of the weights in the form of HEAR THE CHANT at $11+ (UBET) and *DEJA BLUE* at $28+ (BETFAIR). Both should make own luck up front and more than capable in this type of event. HEAR THE CHANT going well and last start went solo down the inside of the straight which works maybe 1 in 100 times. Clear excuse. *DEJA BLUE* I’m going to forgive on a wet track last time and ideally want to see sitting in first two and giving them all something to catch. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers DIVINE QUALITY and ALTA STELLA, but doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: HEAR THE CHANT (EACH WAY) @ $11+, *DEJA BLUE* (EACH WAY) @ $28+, FIRST FOUR (5, 7 / F / F / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 90 over 1600m and again looks to be decent pace here, which should give most their chance. Sticking with a couple here who I rate, firstly **RIYADH** who is simply always over the odds and not sure why. Doesn’t know how to run a bad race, although gets back so always needs a bit of luck on side, especially in terms to how the track is playing, as is the case here. As long as the track is relatively even, then really like at a juicy $12+ with BET365. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day at a really juicy each way price. The other is MY PAISANN who is running out of chances, but keeps running well enough and again looks well suited here at a respectable $6.10+ with SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU.
SUGGEST: **RIYADH** (EACH WAY) @ $12+, MY PAISANN (EACH WAY) @ $6.10+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 8 / F / 4, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 70 over 1100m. Happy to follow the money here in the form of PLEASANT who has been heavily backed in early markets as triggered by the trusty Plunge app ‘Early Saturday Movers’, into $2.80+ with BETFAIR. The key scratching was at the top with HIGHLAND BEAT, taking out decent pace in the race and as a result, PLEASANT can lead, dictate and pinch a race winning lead on the bend and be simply too fast to the line. Then, want a secondary play on WILDE GEM at a juicy $15+ with BET365. Drawn awkwardly but with not a great deal of pace in the race, especially for an 1100m event (not to mention just the one bend to contend with) shouldn’t prove a major obstacle. Hoping they ride positively and if so can be right there and give the top pick something to worry about by not being far behind.
SUGGEST: PLEASANT (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $2.80+, WILDE GEM (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (F / 13 / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 5: Last leg of the early quaddie is an open handicap over 1200m. Plenty of chances in a competitive affair, but think best value lies with two we have backed with success at their respective last starts so happy to go again here. The two in question are REILMARTINI at $6.50+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR) and LIGHT ROMANCE at a more than tidy $12.20+ with SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU. REILMARTINI saluted for us two weeks back and although hot fave here in WILLIAM THOMAS has clear reasons which he can turn the tables, don’t underestimate a galloper in the Weir stable who keeps winning. Can win again and at almost double the odds of WILLIAM THOMAS most definitely the better value. LIGHT ROMANCE you need to go back a bit further, but we were keen when she saluted last start of the prep back on December 30 when we snagged a nice double figure price and she won with some authority. No harder here and one win from only first up start on debut. Main danger WILLIAM THOMAS as mentioned.
SUGGEST: REILMARTINI (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, LIGHT ROMANCE (EACH WAY) @ $12.20+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 3, 8 / F), (F / 3 / F / 2, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is a Listed event for the two year olds over 1200m. Two standout here and no surprise to see them at the top of the market. SIKORSKY at $4.85+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) is the one which represents the better value for mine, so happy to play there each way, ahead of the main danger in SUNSET WATCH who looks very hard to beat, but rock bottom price into red figures with most operators. Happy to just play around the two, but respect money for any other runners, given we are dealing with lightly raced two year olds. Especially if any end up triggering a Plunge (www.plungeapp.com.au/download), must have free punting tool to assist in situation like this.
SUGGEST: SIKORSKY (EACH WAY) @ $4.85+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Next are the three year old fillies over 1100m and plenty of pace on paper here as you’d expect given the big field and 1100m trip, plus just the one bend so some won’t be so worried camping three wide with or without cover if needed. Tough race, plethora of chances, so happy to play three here all around the 20/1 mark. And yes, for those who knock a three pronged play, simply look at it as a single play at a runner at approximately 6 or 7/1 or which nobody should have many/any issues. The three in question are CHATEAU GRIFFO at $19+ (most operators), BALLE D’OR at $21+ (BET365) and *FAITH IN HAND* at $26.50+ with SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU. All in good form (all three won first up this prep, admittedly in lesser grade, but impressively) and only CHATEAU GRIFFO has missed since, but had a genuine excuse when pulled up lame. And importantly all have past form against good opposition, so more than capable at this level. CHATEAU GRIFFO – 2.35L to Our Crown Mistress last run last prep, BALLE D’OR – 3.95L to Formality in Group 3 last prep, *FAITH IN HAND* – 1.8L to Torvill when unlucky in Listed event last prep. All good enough for me at their respective prices. At the juicier price, happy to make *FAITH IN HAND* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers LEATHER’N’LACE and SANADAAT.
SUGGEST: CHATEAU GRIFFO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $19+, BALLE D’OR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $21+, *FAITH IN HAND* (EACH WAY) @ $26.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 6 / F / 11, 16, 17), (2, 6 / 11, 16, 17 / F / 11, 16, 17) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 84 over 1400m. Open race, but going to keep this simple with the two at the top of the weights and in that order. Primary play on **RUNSON** at $5.50+ with most operators, ahead of LEODORO at $10+ with most operators. **RUNSON** was super last time jumping to 1400m. Pet trip for mine and if anything may be a softer tempo up front which should only enhance chances (in theory anyways). Gets in nice enough weight wise after the claim and Riordan has been on past two including last start win. At the price, happy to actually make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Always a fan of LEODORO, but given get back style, doesn’t win out of turn but the right odds here and is racing very well so happy to throw in again at the price. Main danger NOTIO.
SUGGEST: **RUNSON** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, LEODORO (WIN / EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (12 / 1, 2 / F / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish a benchmark 84 over 2000m and very tough finish to the day. ABDON a big omission here, as looked hard to beat and I dare say would’ve been the standalone play, but instead going to stagger across three at varying odds. Slight lean now to TOP OF THE RANGE at $4.40+ with PALMERBET, UBET and CROWNBET. Ironically, have thought poison odds lately when very short on multiple occasions and just missing a couple of times, but on this occasion actually represents decent enough value for mine. Deserves another win and should be right there at the finish. Then, want secondary plays on both HARLOW GOLD at $10.20+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) and JAMINZAH at $32+ with SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU. Both somewhat speculative given recent form, with HARLOW GOLD growing a decent list of excuses (although many absolutely genuine), while JAMINZAH isn’t in form, but does have past form this way of going and in this sort of race to cause a boil-over if conditions suit, but will need them running on. Main dangers ABDON, HE EKSCELS and NO COMMITMENT.
SUGGEST: TOP OF THE RANGE (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.40+, HARLOW GOLD (WIN / EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $10.20+, JAMINZAH (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $32+, FIRST FOUR (4, 11, 18 / 10 / F / 2, 7), (F / 4, 11, 18 / 10 / 2, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $12.87+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: RIYADH @ $12+, RUNSON @ $5.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: DEJA BLUE @ $28+, FAITH IN HAND @ $26+