SATURDAY, APRIL 7, 2018
Racing at RANDWICK for week 1 of The Championships and incredibly fine weather in Sydney! Penetrometer 5.09, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to RANDWICK with the rail in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track (pace dependant), but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the Group 3 Kindergarten Stakes for the 2YOs over 1100m. Tough start to a super day’s racing. Slight lean to LEGEND OF CONDOR at $5.50+ with BETFAIR. Gave him a sneaky longshot chance in the slipper when couldn’t squeeze into the field and as a result, must give a good chance here in this grade. Main dangers ENBIHAAR, ENNIS HILL and LEAN MEAN MACHINE.
SUGGEST: LEGEND OF CONDOR (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 8, 9 / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is another Group 3, this time the Carbine Club for the 3YO2 over the mile (1600m). Another hot, competitive race which will be the nature of the day, however am sticking with another #1 saddle cloth, this time in the form of HOLY SNOW at $4.50+ (BETFAIR), one who we have always had a good opinion of. Was actually keen at a huge price in the Guineas in the spring and since then has really stepped up to the plate, especially this prep. Main dangers VILLERMONT and ASSIMILATE.
SUGGEST: HOLY SNOW (EACH WAY) @ $4.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 3 / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Yet another Group 3, this time for the 3YO fillies over 1200m. Yet again going with those at the top of the weights, commencing with the class runner in the field in CATCHY at a respectable $7.50+ (BET365) who will appreciate the drop back to Group 3 level after Group 1 racing has simply become the norm. Hasn’t been at her best, but did place at G1 level last start hence can get the job done here. Then, also want a play on FROLIC at a juicy $17+ with CENTREBET. Underrated galloper and with lesser known trainer, as a result we get overs in a race like this. Hasn’t done a great deal wrong in short career and can go real close here with some luck in running (barrier 1 not ideal for get back, run on galloper) and needs the track allowing those off the pace to be running on. Main dangers SHE’S SO HIGH and DEMERARA.
SUGGEST: CATCHY (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FROLIC (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 8 / F / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Next is the Country Championships Final over 1400m and as much as this is getting a little silly, have come out with the top two saddle cloths on top again! CAERLESS CHOICE looks excellent each way value at $11+ (most operators) after just missing last time behind SUNCRAZE and now getting critical 1.5kg swing in the weights. Despite the BM83 grade, the 1.6L defeat to Cellarman three starts back, reads well for a race like this. Then, also want something on SUNCRAZE at $4.80+ (BETFAIR) who has been good to us in recent times, we stuck with despite the run of 2nds (jumping on at the right time) and any runner who has 12 top two finishes from 12 starts, many of which in town (despite the tab highway status’) is a very consistent and decent galloper, especially for a race like this, despite the weight. Main dangers SNITZ, VICTOREM and DON’T GIVE A DAMN.
SUGGEST: CAERLESS CHOICE (EACH WAY) @ $11+, SUNCRAZE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 4, 5 / F / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Next is the Group 2 Chairman’s Quality over 2600m and don’t see why MASTER OF ARTS can’t get the job done again here at $12+ with CENTREBET. Very good defeating key rival here in ALWARD last time and despite not being as well weighted, I think is the safer bet in terms of running a strong 2600m. I recall being on ALWARD on Derby day over 2500m in the Lexus and looked the winner on the turn but just didn’t run the trip. Then, can’t believe the price on offer for WHEAL LEISURE at a very juicy $21+ with BET365, SPORTSBET and CENTREBET. Always rated this mare who cost herself out of the barriers last time when very good late. Happy to play around the two, main dangers ALWARD, PERIBSEN, and VENTURA STORM.
SUGGEST: MASTER OF ARTS (EACH WAY) @ $12+, WHEAL LEISURE (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 8, 11 / F / 2, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Next if the first of four consecutive Group 1 events, commencing with the G1 Sires for the 2YOs over 1400m. Like OOHOOD here at a short enough but good enough (just) at $3.70+ with PALMERBET, CROWNBET and BETFAIR. Has done absolutely nothing wrong, and just fallen short behind some potentially top liners. Then, the one way over the odds is *RINGERDINGDING* at a very juicy $34+ with CENTREBET. Had legitimate excuses last time made to work, and still stuck on well when entitled to fade late. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers SEABROOK and LONG LEAF.
SUGGEST: OOHOOD (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.70+, *RINGERDINGDING* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 14 / F / 10, 13), (F / 13 / 2, 14 / 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Next is the Australian Derby and really keen on **ACE HIGH** here to win another Derby (after taking out the Vic Derby for followers in the Spring) and can do the same here at $5.50+ with CENTRETBET and SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU. Screaming for the extra trip, has been super in lead ups doing plenty of work and still hitting the line, which works exceptionally well heading into a Derby. And will appreciate the firmer track here. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, want a secondary play on TANGLED at a juicy $17+ with most operators. Another screaming for the tip, after hitting the line exceptionally well behind D’argento. Had excuses in the Vic Derby. Main dangers FURORE, MONGOLIAN CONQUEROR, BELFAST and LEVENDI.
SUGGEST: **ACE HIGH** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, TANGLED (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (4, 6, 8, 14 / F / 4, 6, 8, 14 / 1, 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Next is the WFA (Weight For Age) Group 1 TJ Smith over 1200m and what a damn shame the great Chautauqua couldn’t be here for a shot at his fourth TJ. I’ve always been a big REDZEL fan, even before many realised how good the gelding was, now rightly known as the best sprinter in the land. In saying that, just have a feeling that there are a couple of others in particular who are big chances of just getting better runs, more of a slingshot type sit to potentially get to that finish line first, notably IN HER TIME and BRAVE SMASH who was enormous here in the Everest. As a result, think of WIN only plays on both IN HER TIME at $4.25+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) and BRAVE SMASH at $6.50+ with most operators. Both flying at present, are the two that can run time similar to REDZEL and have form against the star sprinter. Longshot play is JUNGLE EDGE at $60+ with BETFAIR. Was disappointing last time despite being on pace ahead of a strong pace, however everyone seems to jump off on a good track, and this is where we have found a way to get some good profit out of this super 7YO gelding so happy to take some overs today, although I think place is the more likely result, as opposed to knocking off each of the big three. Main danger quite obviously REDZEL who needs to go into everything from a multiple and quaddie perspective.
SUGGEST: IN HER TIME (WIN) @ $4.25+, BRAVE SMASH (WIN) @ $6.50+, JUNGLE EDGE (SMALL WIN, MORE PLACE) @ $60+, FIRST FOUR (boxed 1, 3, 4, 8), (1 / 3, 8 / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: Penultimate event on this beast of a card, is a fourth consecutive Group 1, this time in the form of the famous Doncaster Handicap over the famous Randwick mile (1600m). One of Sydney’s great races bar none. Going to keep this short and sweet, in the form of **KEMENTARI** who I think just wins this, barring bad luck in running at a respectable enough $3.90+ with BETFAIR. Is absolutely low flying, not disgraced last time behind superstar Winx and key rival here in HAPPY CLAPPER but importantly gets crucial 2.5kg swing in the weights, dropping down to a featherweight of 51.5kg. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want a saver on HUMIDOR at $10.50+ (BETFAIR) who is the class runner who is a class runner and deserves the top weight, but wouldn’t be scared of carrying 58kg, as is used to performing well at WFA with 59kg. Main danger HAPPY CLAPPER, but plenty of other chances including a host from the Waller yard.
SUGGEST: **KEMENTARI** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.90+, HUMIDOR (EACH WAY) @ $10.50+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 9 / F / F), (F / 3 / F / 1, 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 10: We finish one of the great days on the Australian racing calendar with the running of the Group 3 Adrian Knox for the 3YO fillies over 2000m. the big questions is can LUVALUVA handle the 60kg? She is the class runner and by far the best filly here, but does have to carry an extra 7kg on the field. As a result, prefer to play at bigger odds, in the form of PRETTY TO SEA at $14+ (BET365) and and *JUNGLE FISH* at $19.20+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU). Both in good form and will appreciate the step up to 2000m. PRETTY TO SEA was a total forgive last time in an ugly watch for those who were on, while JUNGLE FISH hit the line well for a step up in distance like this and always need to respect the Kent stable over these longer trips. At the longer price, happy to make *JUNGLE FISH* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Longshot play to DISCREET CHARM at $81+ with most operators. Was progressing well, before last start flop, but vets found slow recovery, hence a legitimate excuse. Main danger most definitely LUVALUVA, WEDGIE and HARMATTAN.
SUGGEST: PRETTY TO SEA (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $14+, JUNGLE FISH (EACH WAY – PRIMARY) @ $19.20+, DISCREET CHARM (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 4 / 11, 13 / F / 8, 11, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $32.52+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: ACE HIGH @ $5.50+, KEMENTARI @ $3.90+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: RINGERDINGDING @ $34+, JUNGLE FISH @ $19.20+