SATURDAY, APRIL 7, 2018
Racing at BENDIGO for their day in the sun (literally) with fine weather in Melbourne also. Penetrometer 5.4, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to BENDIGO with the rail in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track (pace dependant), but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the Macedon Lodge Handicap over 2400m and a good, competitive race to start the day with plenty of chances. Leaning towards BRIMHAM ROCKS here at a tidy $5.60+ each way price with SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU. Was very good on debut in arguably easier race than this, however should derive benefit for that outing and be right in the thick of things here. Main dangers the three at the top of the weights in GALLIC CHIEFTAIN, HARRISON and SIN TO WIN.
SUGGEST: BRIMHAM ROCKS (EACH WAY) @ $5.60+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3 / F / 1, 2, 3 / 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 70 for the 3YOs over 1000m and like WATCHDOG here at $4.40+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Was super last time, especially for a race like this and should be well and truly up to a BM70, although there might be at least one other in the form of the main danger SUPERHARD who may well be well beyond this grade. Then, want a secondary play on BLACKWOLF RUN at a juicy $21 with BET365. Found form prior to last start flop when scope found mucous hence a legitimate excuse. Looks the one over the odds. Main danger SUPERHARD as mentioned, GAUDI and HOLY BLADE.
SUGGEST: WATCHDOG (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.40+, BLACKWOLF RUN (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 8 / 5 / F / 9), (1, 2, 8 / F / 1, 2, 8 / 5, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Now for the Vobis Gold Rush, a race very close to my heart given it was the starting point for INNW, however that does seem a long time ago now. Looks a near raffle given the unknowns with many of these 2YOs hence rather look for some value as always. Just the one bend to content with here, hence not an absolute disaster if caught wide and as we know from past luck, three wide with cover can be the prime position, depending how the track is playing. For this reason, don’t mind *VOODOO QUEEN* at a juicy $34+ with CENTREBET. Should be hitting the long hard regardless, but hoping they still ride confidently enough and just try and find some cover wide but within striking range. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. The other I’m happy to play around is another #1 saddle cloth in MORE BRICKS at a more than tidy $14.20+ with SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU. Plunge on debut when saluting and another drawn wide, but can elect to try and lead but if can’t cross, just the one bend to content with so happy to take the punt that they can offset the barrier. Main dangers who have had backing DIVINE MR TYCOON, REALLY SWISH and HIEMAL but throw a blanket over them all. Tough!
SUGGEST: *VOODOO QUEEN* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, MORE BRICKS (EACH WAY) @ $14.20+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 3, 4 / F / 1, 15), (2, 3, 4 / 1, 15 / F / 1, 15) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 4: Next is a handicap over 1100m and this race has been turned on it’s head given two major scratchings in the form of SPRIGHTLY LASS and PROPERTY who were probably the two hardest to beat. As a result, does seem to simplify things and as a result, have landed on **LYUBA** first up for the Weir stable at $5.60+ with SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU. Flies fresh, can be ridden positively from barrier 1 and with not a great deal of pace on paper (especially with SPRIGHTLY LASS out) may be dominated on pace. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: **LYUBA** (EACH WAY) @ $5.60+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Next is a benchmark 78 over 1300m and like **BLUE TYCOON** here at a respectable $5.75+ with SPORTSBET. Drawn to get an ideal run in transit here which is the key, while many others will need luck from wide gates or be forced to hope track suits swoopers, etc. Has found form this prep, winning three in a row before running third down the straight in a half decent race. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, a secondary play here on longshot *HOT RUBY* at a massive $61+ with CENTREBET. First up here and despite no wins fresh, has been placed three from six starts and in some good races. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Main danger GALAXY RAIDER who could just be too good, however has a wide gate to contend with.
SUGGEST: **BLUE TYCOON** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.75+, *HOT RUBY* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (roving 3, 11, 13 / F), (F / 11 / F / 3, 13) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is the Gold Bracelet for the mares over 1400m. Had SCHISM drawn a gate, I’d be super keen, but will now need luck from there over the 1400m distance, where unlike the 1100m course, there are multiple bends to contend with. FRENCH EMOTION looks to have a stranglehold on this race, and looks hard to beat so happy to go a primary WIN only play at $3.20+ (TOP BETTA), and then a saving play on SCHISM who is most definitely up to these at a tidy $9.50+ with SPORTSBET, BET365 and CENTREBET. Happy to play around the two, throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: FRENCH EMOTION (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.20+, SCHISM (WIN / EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 4 / F / 2, 4) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Next is the Listed Golden Mile over you guessed it 1600m and this is damn tough, but very good race. Going to go with a couple at double figure prices, although I thought we might get even better prices. The two in question are MASK OF TIME at $12+ (BET365) and RISING RED at $15+ also with BET365. Both finished very well in Listed event many here come out of and both can hopefully improve second up and over this trip. Main dangers KIWIA, MIDTERM, WYNDSPELLE and SWORD OF LIGHT, but literally doesn’t end there in very deep and wide open affair.
SUGGEST: MASK OF TIME (EACH WAY) @ $12+, RISING RED (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 8, 11, 16 / F / 13, 18), (F / 13, 18 / 6, 8, 11, 16 / 13, 18) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Listed Bendigo Guineas over 1400m. Another very competitive affair as you’d expect, however have come out with OVERSHARE on top at a more than tidy $8.50+ with BET365. Stable flying, as is this colt and should get every chance from barrier 8 with Dwayne Dunn aboard. Then, want something on CAO CAO at a juicy $17+ with most operators. Can be hard to catch, but when on is more than good enough to win this. Main dangers HOLBIEN who we were on with great success last time, but just see better value in the other two suggested, but is a must for multies/quaddies/etc.
SUGGEST: OVERSHARE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8.50+, CAO CAO (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5 / F / 1, 3), (F / 1, 3 / 5 / 1, 3, 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 90 over 1400m. Pace/tactics and how track is playing set to be key. Open finish, but leaning towards BURRUM’S BUZZ here at $9.10+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) and MY PAISANN at $8.50+ with BET365. Both very good fresh and can (and probably need to) improve here second up, but confident they can. Happy to play around the two, ahead of main dangers KING’S COMMAND, LAND OF PLENTY and RICH LUCK.
SUGGEST: BURRUM’S BUZZ (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9.10+, MY PAISANN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (5, 10, 13 / 12, 16 / F / 12, 16), (5, 10, 13 / F / 5, 10, 13 / 12, 16) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $14.81+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: LYUBA @ $5.60+, BLUE TYCOON @ $5.75+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: VOODOO QUEEN @ $34+, HOT RUBY @ $61+