29 June 2019 (Group racing at Sunshine Coast - quaddie legs)

PUNTING DUNGEON

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SUNSHINE COAST (QUADDIE LEGS)

SATURDAY, JUNE 29, 2019

 

Racing on SUNSHINE COAST and safe to say the heavens have opened the past week with nearly 140mm of rain fallen. Penetrometer 6.98, so we’re on an absolute bog HEAVY (10) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to SUNSHINE COAST with the rail in the TRUE position. They’ll be off the fence, however given the extremely heavy conditions, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide as to how track is playing and where to be/not to be.

 

Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is the Group 3 Sunshine Coast Guineas for the three year olds over the mile (1600m). Tough race as you’d expect with plenty of chances and trickiest part is so many different form lines to try and line up, not to mention several with no exposed heavy track form/experience. Have landed on three plays here all at juicy double figure prices in the form of *PENNINO* at $23+ (TAB), ZAVANCE at $15+ (BET365) and finally ASHARANI at $15+ also with BET365. All over the odds for mine and happy to play accordingly. All handle heavy, all are in the right type of form, and most importantly all represent the value we’re after. At the best price of the lot, happy to make *PENNINO* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers LEONARDO DA HINCHI, JUNIPAL, BACCARAT BABY and STATUESQUELY.

SUGGEST: *PENNINO* (EACH WAY) @ $23+, ZAVANCE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $15+, ASHARANI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 9, 14 / F / 1, 2, 9, 14 / 8, 11, 12) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 7: Next is the Listed Caloundra Cup over 2400m. Going with the kiwi trained galloper here in the form of IGRAINE at a tidy enough each way price of $5.20+ with BETFAIR. /had excuses last time in the Brisbane Cup and as a result when you look at lead up form to that event, has been racing consistently well since crossing over from NZ. Must always respect the kiwi trained gallopers in these staying events, especially on this type of track and importantly has a win and 1 x 2nd from two attempts on heavy ground. Happy to play on a standalone basis, ahead of main dangers both in the Australian Bloodstock colours in BIG DUKE and SAUNTER BOY.

SUGGEST: IGRAINE (EACH WAY) @ $5.20+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4 / F / 1, 4 / 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is a Listed handicap over 1400m and a big field assembled so you’d expect luck to play a part here. As a result going with value as I don’t want to have all my eggs in one basket in a race like this. Have landed on PLATINUM ANGEL at $8+ (BET365), ahead of SNITCH at $21+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) and VIOLATE at $34+ (TOPBETTA). PLATINUM ANGEL looks to finally be ready to translate the promise she has always had. Last run was super, so think she’s going well, however the main query here is simply the heavy track. Has only raced on the ground once, which was first up this prep when landing in the inferior ground but beaten a fair way. As long as the support is steady, then happy to take the punt on a WIN only basis alongside the other two. Hopefully her class can go a long way here. SNITCH and VIOLATE are definitely over the odds, and capable in this type of field for mine. At the better price, will make *VIOLATE* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers JAMAICAN RAIN, NICCANOVA, CHAPTER AND VERSE and MAGNUFIGHTER.  

SUGGEST: PLATINUM ANGEL (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $8+, *VIOLATE* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, SNITCH (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 14 / F / 2, 3, 4, 14 / 1, 8, 13) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 9: We finish with a three year old handicap over 1200m. Tricky finish to tricky quaddie legs given the aforementioned reasons. Best value for mine lies with DEFENCE MISSILE at $6+ (most operators) and RED DOULTON at a juicy $19+ with BET365. DEFENCE MISSILE will relish the conditions, and a repeat of run two back in the Gold Coast Guineas on a heavy track will have the three year old gelding going extremely close here and hopefully one better than 2nd place on that occasion. That was behind Pennino who we tip in earlier race, so a big run there only enhances chances. RED DOULTON was unlucky first up in a nice return regardless and only have to go back four starts for a 4.4L defeat to Outback Barbie (if you won’t mind) despite drawing the car park on that occasion. The clear query is the heavy track (never raced on it) but at the price happy to take the punt. Main dangers BOOMTOWN LASS and TAMBO’S MATE who has been heavily backed on race day. Happy punting and good luck to you all.

SUGGEST: DEFENCE MISSILE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6+, RED DOULTON (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (7, 16 / F / 7, 16 / 2, 17) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $16.24+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: IGRAINE @ $5.20+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: PENNINO @ $23+, VIOLATE @ $34+

#happypunting