SATURDAY, JULY 13, 2019
Racing returns to ROSEHILL with wintry and windy weather forecast for race day. Currently looking at a HEAVY (8) surface with the penetrometer reading 5.93.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL with the rail out +3M. Given the conditions, very important to keep a close eye early on how track is playing. Given the wind, and on a heavy track, I think some races will end up battles of attrition, whilst smart ride (cover for as long as possible even in the straight) could pay big dividends.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1100m. Tough race to start. Best value lies with BELITSA at $6.50+ (TAB, SPORTSBET, BETEASY) and LUCICELLO at $7+ with most operators. BELITSA has fitness on side which may be important in the conditions, while LUCICELLO can be ridden quietly and as long as Schofield can maintain cover for as late as possible, can come over the top. Main dangers TRUE DETECTIVE and SPEND.
SUGGEST: BELITSA (WIN) @ $6.50+, LUCICELLO (WIN) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (3, 9 / 4, 5 / F / 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 20%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 74 over 1500m. Going with the in form CINQUEDEA at $3.60+ with TAB and BETFAIR. Deserves chance here in town after consecutive dominant wins and gets Shinn aboard. Can go on with it here on the back of solid support.
SUGGEST: CINQUEDEA (EACH WAY) @ $3.60+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is Class 3 TAB Highway over 1400m. Can’t split two here both in the market, so will run with both on WIN only basis’. The two in question are GALAPAGOS at $6.50+ (UNIBET) and NASHIAN at $4.40+ with BETFAIR. GALAPAGOS was very good two back, disappointing last time but has had a nice break since. A repeat of effort two back would have him hard to beat. NASHIAN draws a gate which is critical here. Hit the line well last time from impossible position. Will settle much more prominently here.
SUGGEST: GALAPAGOS (WIN) @ $6.50+, NASHIAN (WIN) @ $4.40+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 78 over 2000m. Keen on **HIGH POWER** here at a very nice each way price of $7.10+ with SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU. Gets in very nicely at the weights here and hopefully the track is giving (or potentially evening assisting) backmarkers. Should have some idea and if backmarkers are going well in early races, confidence only increases. At the price, happy to make a BEST VLAUE bet of the day. Main dangers PRIMITIVO (flying but cops big weight increase here), SEMPER FIDELIS and WAKING MOMENT.
SUGGEST: **HIGH POWER** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $7.10+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 10 / F / 2, 5, 10 / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Next is a benchmark 78 for the fillies and mares over 1100m. SPIRITUAL PURSUIT is all the rage and understandably so, but just can’t jump into the now rock bottom price. Instead think much better value lies with DEITY and happy to play at the each way price of $5.50+ with most operators. Interestingly has been rock solid despite the avalanche of money for the favourite.Main danger the obvious in SPIRITUAL PURSUIT.
SUGGEST: DEITY (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3 / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is a benchmark 78 over 1500m. Tough race, as the market suggest with majority at single figure prices. Slight lean to NAHUEL here at $4+ with most operators. First up run was good, extra trip suits, has had good, solid support since markets opened, and should get a nice run in transit and with Bowman aboard, just needs a patient ride and for a touch of luck in the straight. I can see today being a day when being buried can end up okay as long as runs appear in time. Fingers crossed.
SUGGEST: NAHUEL (EACH WAY) @ $4+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Next is the feature of the day, with the running of the Listed Winter Stakes over 1400m. Ripping race with plenty of chances. Best value for mine lies in the form of NEW TIPPERARY at $10+ (most operators) and *BOSS LANE* at a juicy $19+ with TAB. NEW TIPPERARY was very good first up and normally goes better second up, so this suits bigtime. Drawn well, Clark rides, conditions won’t be a problem, ticks plenty of boxes. BOSS LANE was good behind Sesar last time and on that run looks overs here. More than capable on day, and at this level, and on heavy tracks. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers ECKSTEIN, NICCI’S GOLD, STAMPEDE, FIRSTHAND and CRADLE MOUNTAIN. And doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: NEW TIPPERARY (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $10+, *BOSS LANE* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4, 10, 14 / F / 1, 2, 4, 10, 14 / 3, 9) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 88 over 1200m. Blue Army for me here in the form of **ALMANZORA** at a tidy $6.50+ with BET365. Blue Army, well supported, Shinn rides, first up run was good (that Sesar form we spoke of in previous race) and has a win from two second up attempts. Like and happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger RIVER BIRD who was super winning as our best of the day last time, landing a big plunge in the process.
SUGGEST: **ALMANZORA** (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (14 / F / F / 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1200m. Everyone seems to have jumped on DRACHENFELS of late, and as much as I wasn’t keen last time on the back of the flood of support, can jump back aboard today and I like the addition of Shinn. They’ve backed a few here but given the conditions, in the hope backmarkers are getting their chance (we will definitely know by the final event), keen for the much deserved, long overdue win here at $5.30+ with BETFAIR. Main dangers OXFORD TYCOON and HANDLE THE TRUTH both of which have had good support in early markets.
SUGGEST: DRACHENFELS (EACH WAY) @ $5, FIRST FOUR (7, 9 / F / 7, 9 / 1) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $7.09+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: HIGH POWER @ $7.10+, ALMANZORA @ $6.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: BOSS LANE @ $19+