SATURDAY, JULY 20, 2019
Racing returns to ROYAL RANDWICK with fine weather forecast for race day. Penetrometer reading 5.65 race morning, so looking at an improving SOFT (6) surface.
RAIL: +12M (1600M – WINNING POST), +10M (REMAINDER). We head to RANDWICK with the rail out +12M for the most important part. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1400m. Be sure to respect monetary moves with the two year olds, as always, but going to go with MANDELA here at a short enough, yet I’m thinking good enough $2.05+ with UNIBET. Despised the whip on debut so should be sitting with a 100% win record, however the good news is we didn’t invest there, has since gone away, trialled very well and given the stable, I have full confidence in the issue being rectified. A lesser stable I would be concerned, but full faith in the Snowdens. Happy to start with a standalone WIN only play.
SUGGEST: MANDELA (WIN) @ $2.05+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 2: Next is the Class 2 TAB Highway over 1100m. HEALING HANDS looks well above Class 2 grade, regardless of where it’s being run and as much as I prefer backing longer shot pots, we’re starting the day with two favourites, this time at $2.80+ with UNIBET to hopefully get the majority of punters off to a flyer. The ever so slight query is the softer track, but it’s already on the improve and should be on the better side of SOFT by the time race 2 comes around.
SUGGEST: HEALING HANDS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.80+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 74 for the three year olds over 1200m. There’s a shorty here in SIR ELTON with tomato sauce odds on offer, and as much as the undefeated gelding has done absolutely nothing wrong to date, am going to lean towards the better odds on offer for the Waller trained HAUT BRION HER at a much better price of $3.30+ with BETEASY. Form is just as good for mine, was super winning first up, and gets nice weight relief by heading to town. Could be a cracking battle between the two. Main danger the obvious in SIR ELTON. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: HAUT BRION HER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.30+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 7, 8, 9 / 3 / 6 / 1, 4, 7, 8, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 78 for the fillies and mares over 1400m. Cannot split two here in the form of VELOCITA at $4.50+ (LADBROKES) and JUDGE JUDI at $6+ with TOPBETTA. Is at the skinny end for a two pronged play, but the initially slight lean to JUDGE JUDI at the better price was balanced by the fact Shinn rode both of them last start and has elected to ride VELOCITA. Possibly the Waller factor? Either way, will simply play both on WIN only basis’.
SUGGEST: VELOCITA (WIN) @ $4.50+, JUDGE JUDI (WIN) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 7 / F / 6, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Next is the Eremein Handicap over 2000m. We were super keen on WU GOK last time and we got the chocolates accordingly, and although preferred Heavy track won’t be the situation here, I think we can be winning again on a SOFT track here. $3+ with BETFAIR is a play for mine and hopefully a few take on given the poor SOFT track form on paper. Importantly most recent runs on better tracks have been good. Main dangers DYLAN’S ROMANCE who has had strong support in early markets. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: WU GOK (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5 / 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is a benchmark 78 over 1800m. Keen on **DR DRILL** here at a tidy price of $4+ with most operators, even on the back of solid support. Was beaten by a heavy track mudlark in Wu Gok last time, and on better ground, on the back of a very important 3kg claim can be winning this. Bullish and happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers LOVEISILI, GAYATRI, TORYJOY and COSTELLO.
SUGGEST: **DR DRILL** (EACH WAY) @ $4+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 5, 8 / F / 2, 4, 5, 8 / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Next is a benchmark 88 over 1400m. Good, competitive, even race with plenty of chances, as the market suggests with 6 of the 8 at 10/1 or less. Like the odds on offer here for SWEET DEAL at $6+ with most operators. Think it’s a ‘sweet deal’ at the each way price, with excuses last time and good swing in the weights here. Shinn rides, drawn well, shouldn’t be any excuses. Then, want a somewhat speculative play on *ARRAIGNMENT* at a massive $43+ with SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU. Terribly out of form, but more than capable at this level when right, and am thinking the better conditions and extra distance might generate some big improvement. Bit confused by the cold-ridden tactics this prep which haven’t worked, so would love for them to ride a lot more positively, however I dare say Pride has a reason for the decision. On a card devoid of longshots, will make this a BEST LONGSHOT of the day, by default. Throw a blanket over the rest in a deep race. All runners with a claim, especially as we’re playing the rank outsider.
SUGGEST: SWEET DEAL (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6+, *ARRAIGNMENT* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $43+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 9 / F / 4, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 78 over the mile (1600m). Another wide open, competitive affair, but like ZAVANCE here at $4.80+ with UNIBET and BET365. Looks to be good pace on paper, and as long as those off the pace are getting their chance, by coming out wide, then looks set to come over the top of them here. We’ll know by race 8. Drops from Group 3 grade where ran super, so a decent drop here and only goes up 0.5kg as a result. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **ZAVANCE** (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1000m. Like NATALIA here at a short enough, yet good enough $2.70+ with most operators. We were keen last time and just missed in a photo finish and although odds aren’t as good today, think we can get the job done here. Interestingly shorter average prices today at Randwick, just how the cards have landed, so fingers crossed for a plethora of winners across the card. Happy punting!
SUGGEST: NATALIA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.70+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds $7.47+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: DR DRILL @ $4+, ZAVANCE @ $4.80+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: ARRAIGNMENT @ $43+