27 July 2019 (Racing at Caulfield)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

CAULFIELD

SATURDAY, JULY 27, 2019

 

Racing returns to CAULFIELD with wintery weather forecast in the leadup to and on race day. Currently looking at a SOFT (6) surface and expecting it to remain in the SOFT range throughout the day.

RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD with the rail out +6M, after being out +3M here two weeks back. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

Trialling a new simplified format for today, so keen to get thoughts/feedback to ensure we shape the ideal experience for the forthcoming Spring.

 

Race 1 @ 11.55am AEST (Steph Hunter VOBIS Gold Ingot over 1400m):

Set Weights plus Penalties, Two-Years-Old, For VOBIS Gold qualified horses only

Suggested plays:

·        SPIRIT MEDIUM @ $4+ (BETFAIR) – Blue Army, Williams aboard, in-form, handles conditions, has had support, top pick as a result. (WIN)

·        I AM ELOQUENT @ $10.20+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) – Meech / Busuttin combination flying, done little wrong to date, handles conditions, and looks the value and suggest a secondary each way play. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        CAN’T BE DONE @ $2.30+ (SPORTSBET) – Keeps running very well for us, makes own luck, barrier 1 a slight query, but no real knocks besides the shorter price today.

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 2 @ 12.30pm AEST (Le Pine Funerals Handicap over 1100m):

Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Fillies and Mares

Suggested plays:

·        I REMEMBER YOU @ $4.30+ (BETFAIR) – Good consistent type, goes well fresh, has trialled well, handles conditions, and arguably gets best run in the race of the main chances. (WIN / EACH WAY)

·        RAVEN’S BLAZE @ $15+ (BETEASY) – Pace will suit, hence the reason for a play at a very juicy price. Ability the query, but they bothered heading to Sydney two back, and has realistic case. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        I AM QUEEN

·        MISS IANO

·        MISS NORWAY

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 3 @ 1.05pm AEST (Ladbrokes Odds Boost Handicap over 1600m):

BenchMark 78, Handicap

Suggested plays:

·        **BALLET MASTER** @ $3.85+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) – Good consistent type, was stiff last time for us when just didn’t get totally clear run (niggled on the outside until late) for us as a best value of the day at a double figure price. Flew late, can go one better here. BEST OF THE DAY! (WIN / EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        ROYAL ORDER

·        SATORI

·        HUMBOLT CURRENT

·        CAMPOBASSO

CONFIDENCE: 40%

 

Race 4 @ 1.40pm AEST (Danny Barrett VOBIS Gold Stayers over 2400m):

Set Weights plus Penalties, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, For VOBIS Gold qualified horses only

NO THIRD DIVIDEND

Suggested plays:

·        SOPRESSA @ $2.80+ (BETFAIR) – Good consistent type, who we’ve been on at odds and always runs a race, recently in much better races than this. The knock is hasn’t won for a while, but gets everything in favour here from weight, conditions, class, etc so there shouldn’t be any excuses. (WIN)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        SASKO

·        FANCIFUL TOFF

CONFIDENCE: 40%

 

Race 5 @ 2.20pm AEST (Mypunter.com Handicap over 2400m):

Handicap, Three-Years-Old

Suggested plays:

·        WEALTHY WOLF @ $8+ (BET365) – Needs pace on, which can happen with several capable of going forward, without being out and out leaders, so only time will tell. As long as pace is genuine enough, and backmarkers are getting their chance, in this bigtime at lovely each way odds. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        NOT A SINGLE CENT

·        TAVIRUN

·        RIPCORD

·        REFLECT THE STARS

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 6 @ 3.00pm AEST (Jenna Ross VOBIS Gold Reef over 1600m):

Set Weights plus Penalties, Three-Years-Old, For VOBIS Gold qualified horses only

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 1

Suggested plays:

·        ZARGOS @ $6.10+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) – Always had an opinion of ZARGOS and has run some big races in much better races than this. Last run was very good, but is another who needs race run to suit and track being kind enough to those off the pace. We’ll know by race 6. Drawn well. (EACH WAY)

·        *SANTELMO FUEGO* @ $27+ (SPORTSBET) – Had something on at big price last time, when most were outrun/outsmarted by dominant winner. Genuine type who always gives all, handles conditions and this isn’t the highest quality event so gets chance at a big price. BEST LONGSHOT OF DAY! (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        TAKSU

·        BENITOITE

·        TURN THE TIDE

·        MAGNOSSIVA

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 7 @ 3.40pm AEST (Long Fine Plate over 1200m):

Handicap, Minimum Weight 54kg, Three-Years-Old, Fillies

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 2

Suggested plays:

·        VOILA @ $9+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Won for us well at odds two back, will get race run to suit, and as long as backmarkers are getting their chance, then looks good chance at nice odds again (WIN / EACH WAY)

·        CALZINI @ $8+ (BET365) – Very similar to the above, and importantly brings good form to a race like this and stable going well. (WIN / EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        PICKUP THE PIECES

·        STREET ICON

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 8 @ 4.20pm AEST (The Big Screen Company Bletchingly Stakes over 1200m):

GROUP 3, Standard Weight for Age

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 3

Suggested plays:

·        SCALES OF JUSTICE @ $9+ (BETFAIR) – Is more than capable at this level, just comes down to how wound up for first up run on back of decent break here. Support sound, so banking on being ready to win first up and importantly handles give in track. (WIN)

·        BANDIPUR @ $13+ (MOST OPERATORS) – We were on last time in the Monash, and found to be lame. As a result, need to give another chance here, second run for new stable. (WIN)

·        *SPIRIT OF AQUADA* @ $34+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) – Underrated galloper who has been good to us in the past. Group 3 is a test, but has form around the right horses in the past for a race like this. Another BEST LONGSHOT of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        SESAR

·        JUNGLE EDGE

·        CLIFF’S EDGE

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 9 @ 4.55pm AEST (Catanach’s Jewellers Handicap over 1400m):

Handicap

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 4

Suggested plays:

·        **TSHAHITSI** @ $4.45+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) – Slight lean (just ahead of ROMANCER) on the back of the expected pace on paper, or lack thereof more specifically. Should get race run to suit and as long as on pacers are getting their chance, then should be hard to catch, with strong second up and soft track form. Happy to finish with another BET OF THE DAY but do save on ROMANCER. (EACH WAY)

·        ROMANCER @ $4+ (BET365) – Ready to win. Looks the main danger so given I’ve made the above a best of the day, want to have a saver WIN only play here. (WIN)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        SESAR

·        JUNGLE EDGE

·        CLIFF’S EDGE

CONFIDENCE: 40%

 

 SUMMARY:

Average odds $10.17+ per suggested runner!

** BEST OF DAY**: BALLET MASTER @ $3.85+, TSHIAHITSI @ $4.45+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: SANTELMO FUEGO @ $27+, SPIRIT OF AQUADA @ $34+

#happypunting