27 July 2019 (Racing at Royal Randwick)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, JULY 27, 2019

 

Racing returns to RANDWICK with relatively fine conditions for race day. Penetrometer reading 4.8, so we’re on a GOOD (4) surface and expect it to stay there for the duration of the day.

RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to RANDWICK with the rail out +6M. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

Trialling a new simplified format for today, so keen to get thoughts/feedback to ensure we shape the ideal experience for the forthcoming Spring.

 

Race 1 @ 11.40am AEST (ASX Refinitiv Charity Foundation Handicap over 1200m):

Two-Years-Old, Handicap

Suggested plays:

·        EXCEED THE STARS @ $4.20+ (BET365) – Good win last time against a smart one, who was a tad unlucky, but that’s the game. Nash to get another two year old home upon his return? (WIN)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        BELITSA

·        LUCICELLO

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 2 @ 12.15pm AEST (TAB Highway Class 3 Plate over 1500m):

Class 3, Set Weights, Three-Years-Old and Upwards

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 1

Suggested plays:

·        **ASSAULT’N’BATHORY** @ $5.50+ (MOST OPERATORS) – In form, consistent type, will make own luck up in front and as long as on pacers aren’t disadvantaged, then looks a great each way betand will make a BEST BET of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        PAT’S NIPPER

·        ONEMORE SAPPHIRE

·        SCARLET MISSILE

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

Race 3 @ 12.50pm AEST (Refinitiv Handicap over 1200m):

BenchMark 78, Handicap, Minimum Weight 52.5kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Fillies and Mares

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 2

NO THIRD DIVIDEND

Suggested plays:

·        MOCCASIN MISS @ $18+ (BET365) – Pace/tactics is the key here, with the four shortest in the market all expected to battle it out up front. Despite running with the three lesser credentialed runners here, I’m hoping for it to be setup for blowout over the top of them late. (WIN / EACH WAY)

·        SEBRING EXPRESS @ $41+ (BET365) As above. Good stable. Can shock at huge price. (WIN / EACH WAY)

·        PRINCESS LOTTI @ $41+ (BET365) – As above. Pace to suit, query is ability, big price happy to take the punt. (WIN / EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        Rest of the FIELD, the 4 shortest in the market. FIELD leg for early quaddie?

CONFIDENCE: 20%

 

Race 4 @ 1.25pm AEST (Pro IT Handicap over 1350m):

BenchMark 88, Handicap, Minimum Weight 52kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 3

Suggested plays:

·        RIVER BIRD @ $2.50+ (LADBROKES) – Absolutely flying, pardon the pun. Has been good to us, and has the ability to overcome issues to get the job done. Opening quote was in the red, and that wasn’t value given out to 1350m, however now out to backable odds and as a result happy to play. (WIN)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        Throw a blanket over the field here in a wide open, tricky affair if the bird doesn’t get the job done.

CONFIDENCE: 40%

 

Race 5 @ 2.00pm AEST (Robb Report Handicap over 2400m):

BenchMark 78, Handicap, Minimum Weight 53kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 4

Suggested plays:

·        MAKDANIFE @ $10+ (BETFAIR) – Like the jump to 2400m and looks set to get into the winner’s stalls (hopefully at a very nice each way price here) after some good runs in recent times to build up to this. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        OUR CANDIDATE

·        FUJI FURY

·        ILWENDO

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 6 @ 2.40pm AEST (Next Telecom Handicap over 1400m):

BenchMark 70, Handicap, Minimum Weight 52kg, Three-Years-Old

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 1

Suggested plays:

·        SELES @ $16+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) – Call me crazy but in a tough race (and tough card as a whole) have landed on two famous Female tennis names here, both at very juicy double figure prices. SELES was good last time and form franked by winner Phaistos who was very good at Flemington last week. Waller polish always a big plus. (EACH WAY)

·        SHARAPOVA @ $14+ (BET365) – showed signs last prep and first up win was good to now come to a race like this. Over the odds, good each way value. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        FRONT SIGHT

·        LIGULATE

·        WIMLAH

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 7 @ 3.20pm AEST (Maldives Travel Connection Winter Challenge over 1500m):

LISTED, Quality, Minimum Weight 53kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 2

Suggested plays:

·        ECKSTEIN @ $5.10+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU, BETFAIR) – Has been good to us in the past, so is always tough to watch win (as it was last start) when you rate highly. As a result, jumping back aboard here as Listed grade looks very well suited, remember was a lip from a Group 1 (we were on both the winner and her at 60/1 that day – Derby Day 2017) and important is back in form. (EACH WAY)

·        *NEW TIPPERARY* @ $18+ (MOST OPERATORS) – First up run was good, second up was poor, but happy to forgive at the price, especially back on top of the ground here. Over the odds. BEST LONGSHOT BET of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        SEAWAY

·        STAMPEDE

·        GAULOIS

·        TAKE IT INTERN

·        CRADLE MOUNTAIN

·        NICCI’S GOLD

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 8 @ 4.00pm AEST (Precise Air Handicap over 1100m):

Handicap, Minimum Weight 52kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 3

Suggested plays:

·        YOU MAKE ME SMILE @ $4.80+ (BET365) – Good galloper who was low flying last prep. Has a win first up, and although normally even better second up and beyond, looks to be trialling particularly well so hoping another first up win can occur here. (WIN / EACH WAY)

·        *GOLDFINCH* @ $15+ (BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR) – Will make own luck up front and assuming we’re on a track which gives front runners their chance (we’ll know by race 8) then looks a lovely each way play. Happy to make another BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        BON AMIS

·        DELECTATION GIRL

·        TANIKO

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 9 @ 4.40pm AEST (Pacific Boating Handicap over 1100m):

BenchMark 78, Handicap, Minimum Weight 53kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 4

Suggested plays:

·        **OXFORD TYCOON** @ $5.50+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Given the better draw aim going with OXFORD TYCOON (over DEITY who would’ve been the play had it drawn a gate). Has been costly for punters this prep, but not us, so hopefully jumping on at the right time, especially back on top of the ground. On a tough card, happy to finish with a BEST BET of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

·        DEITY

·        GREYWORM

·        SHARPE HUSSLER

·        RARE EPISODE

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

 SUMMARY:

Average odds $14.33+ per suggested runner!

** BEST OF DAY**: ASSAULT’N’BATHORY @ $5.50+, OXFORD TYCOON @ $5.50+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: NEW TIPPERARY @ $18+, GOLDFINCH @ $15+

#happypunting