10 August 2019 (Racing at Rosehill Gardens)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY, AUGUST 10, 2019

 

Racing returns to ROSEHILL with sunny but windy weather (westerly), penetrometer 4.75, hence looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL with the rail back to the TRUE position. Given the winds, am thinking on pace, but not leading is the go, with cover until as late in the straight as possible, before making your run late. Good jockeys worth their weight in gold on days like this in my humble opinion. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1 @ 11:55AM AEST (St Johns Park Bowling Club Handicap over 1400m):

BenchMark 70, Handicap, Minimum Weight 52kg, Three-Years-Old and Four-Years-Old

Suggested plays:

SUBEDAR @ $9+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Like the odds on offer here, on the back of impressive debut when well backed and now deserves crack in town for lethal Blue Army. Looks to map well in the run with good speed on paper. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

ADANA

SEDGEMOOR

DANAWI

WIMLAH

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 2 @ 12.30pm AEST (Campbelltown Catholic Club Handicap over 1200m):

BenchMark 88, Handicap, Minimum Weight 52kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Fillies and Mares

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 1

NO THIRD DIVIDEND (NTD)

Suggested plays:

CONNEMARA @ $7+ (BETFAIR) – Tricky little race, despite small field. Not a stack of pace on paper, hence could be a tactical affair and although I concede HAUT BRION HER is hard to beat, just can’t get overly enthused about the short quote, and think CONNEMARA can take a sit right behind her and at bigger odds just to place (NTD) prefer to play there instead. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

HAUT BRION HER

TANIKO (Plunge Early Saturday Mover, Blue Army)

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 3 @ 1.05pm AEST (TAB Highway Class 3 Plate over 1800m):

Class 3, Set Weights, Three-Years-Old and Upwards

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 2

Suggested plays:

ISADORA TWINKLE @ $6.10+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) – Knocking on the door bigtime to win one of these, unlucky last time, drawn well here, hoping not too far back with midfield run two or three wide with cover ideal to come over the top late. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

PERFECT RHYME

BLACK WAND

ONEMORE SAPPHIRE

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 4 @ 1.40pm AEST (Smithfield RSL Missile Stake over 1200m):

GROUP 2

Standard Weight for Age, Three-Years-Old and Upwards - $200,000

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 3

Suggested plays:

LE ROMAIN @ $4.20+ (BET365) – ALIZEE looks terribly hard to beat, but $1.45 against a couple of very good gallopers is just too risky, although no surprise to see her destroy them. Prefer a one out quaddie leg and/or multi anchor as opposed to refinancing to take care of the outlay. LE ROMAIN at $4.20+ just looks the one at a better price, hence the safer play. (WIN / EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

ALIZEE

VEGADAZE

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

Race 5 @ 2.15pm AEST (Canterbury Hurlstone Parl Club Rosebud over 1100m):

LISTED
Quality, Minimum Weight 53kg, Three-Years-Old

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 4

Suggested plays:

*LET IT POUR* @ $11+ (PALMERBET) – Looks great each way value, on the back of excellent debut run in Group 2 Sweet Embrace before being put away. Maps well, stable flying, Avdulla rides. Ticks the right boxes and on a day devoid of longshots, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

LUCICELLO

DAWN PASSAGE

ATHIRI

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 6 @ 2.55pm AEST (Dooleys Handicap over 1400m):

BenchMark 88, Handicap, Minimum Weight 55kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 1

Suggested plays:

**SWEET DEAL** @ $3.20+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Doesn’t look to be much pace on paper, so am hoping they take a sit behind the leader (FORTENSKY?) and not lead for reasons mentioned in intro. If so, should be hard to catch, looks well suited in this grade/in this type of field. Will make a BEST BET of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

DRACHENFELS

FORTENSKY

ALL TOO SOON

NOTIO

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

Race 7 @ 3.35pm AEST (Bankstoewn Sports Club Handicap over 2000m):

BenchMark 78, Handicap, Minimum Weight 53kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 2

Suggested plays:

NAHUEL @ $7.60+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) – Tricky race with not a stack of pace on paper, beyond the two obvious that will go forward (SCHOLARLY, ULUSABA). Hoping NAHUEL ducks in just behind them, and with the best in the business J-Mac aboard can wait patiently until the optimal moment to kick away. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

COSTELLO (Plunge Early Saturday Mover)

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 8 @ 4.15pm AEST (Cabra Bowls Handicap over 1200m):

BenchMark 78, Handicap, Minimum Weight 52kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 3

Suggested plays:

*STELLA SEA SUN* @ $10.20+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) – Absolutely flying and am surprised by the odds on offer. Looks to map very well, McEvoy rides, 5 wins from 9, 9 placings from 9. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day at the double figure price. (EACH WAY)

DEITY @ $8+ (BET365) – Has been close, big cigarless in recent times but has the hoof on the till and is ready to win. Looks great each way value and looks to map well with good pace up front. Blue Army! (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

BLACK MAGNUM (Plunge Early Saturday Mover)

SO TAKEN

OXFORD TYCOON

DAWN DAWN

PRIME CANDIDATE

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 9 @ 4.55pm AEST (Doltone House Marconi Handicap over 1500m):

BenchMark 78, Handicap, Minimum Weight 52kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 4

Suggested plays:

**THE AVENGER** @ $5+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Drawn well, J-Mac rides, Waller polish, looks ready to win after being close but cigarless in all recent runs. Concede the fave is hard to beat, but prefer the each way odds here and happy to finish with a BEST BET of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

CINQUEDEA

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

 SUMMARY:

Average odds $7.13+ per suggested runner!

** BEST OF DAY**: SWEET DEAL @ $3.20+, THE AVENGER @ $5+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: LET IT POUR @ $11+, STELLA SEA SUN @ $10.20+

#happypunting