24 August 2019 (Racing at the Valley - Moonee Valley)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

THE VALLEY

SATURDAY, AUGUST 24, 2019

 

Racing returns to THE VALLEY with the penetrometer reading 4.8, so currently looking at a SOFT (5) surface where I’d expect it to remain, with an off chance of an upgrade later.

RAIL: +4M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to THE VALLEY with the rail out +4M. I did walk the track this morning and don’t see any issue with the rail or near rail especially from the 400m mark to the winning post. Ground quite even in the straight itself however on and prior to the bend you don’t think it’s a day to be making long, sustained, wide sweeping runs. Hence, am basing all on an advantage to those closer to the pace/rail, however always pace dependant.

 

Race 1 @ 12.20pm AEST (Paramount Liquor Handicap over 1600m):

BenchMark 78, Handicap

Suggested plays:

**SHOT OF IRISH** @ $3.80+ (BETFAIR) – Love these Tasmanians who head to the mainland and generally do very well. In form, drawn poorly but should be able to slot in just behind the leader, which would be prime, especially on the rail with cover with headwind in back straight. Melham rides so in good hands and assuming gets to that spot, should be very hard to catch. Will make a BEST BET of the day to kick things off. (EACH WAY)

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

Race 2 @ 12.55pm AEST (Sweeney Estate Agents Handicap over 2500m):

BenchMark 78, Handicap

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 1

Suggested plays:

INAYHORHAY @ $8.40+ (BETFAIR) – Gets right run here, assuming they take advantage of the good gate with several speed runners here drawn wide. Can hopefully take sit right behind a decent tempo up front, bide time and then make run as they straighten for home. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

GOOD IDEA

DABIYR

PERFECT RHYTHM

SHANGANI PATROL

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 3 @ 1.30pm AEST (PALENTINO – Outstanding 1st Crop Yearlings Plate over 1200m):

Set Weights plus Penalties, Three-Years-Old, Fillies

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 2

Suggested plays:

LA TENE @ $16+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Looks silly overs for the Blue Army in what is a very good and competitive race, however one with strong tempo expected up front. For reasons outlines don’t want to be caught wide before the bend, so happy to be riding for luck somewhat closer to the rail and hoping the right lane opens up in the straight. At the price happy to ride that luck and make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. (EACH WAY)

SASSY SALITAGE @ 17.50+ (BETFAIR) – Money has come for this galloper (Plunge Early Mover) who won well after decent backing also on debut and now heads straight to town. Hopefully takes sit from good gate. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

LADY LUPINO

TARAAYEF

MEUSE

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 4 @ 2.05pm AEST (Dr Sheahan Plate over 1200m):

BenchMark 84, Handicap, Minimum Weight 54kg, Four-Years-Old and Upwards, Mares

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 3

Suggested plays:

FABRIC @ $4.80+ (BETFAIR) – Tricky race with a fair few who can go forward, but from barrier 3 and Williams aboard (a jockey who will be across any track bias as he’s a trackwalker….as they all should be) but again can camp just behind a strong tempo and be ready to pounce as they straighten for home. (EACH WAY)

ANGELIC SPIRIT @ $18+ (TAB) – Another drawn to get a lovely run, so then comes down to form/ability. Can make a case at the price, and part of in form Meech/Busuttin combination who have been flying. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

STREET ICON

FRAGONARD

ALGADON PRINCE

CALZINI

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 5 @ 2.45 AEST (Seppelt Wines Carlyon Stakes over 1000m):

LISTED

Set Weights plus Penalties, Four-Years-Old and Upwards

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 4

Suggested plays:

**BONS AWAY** @ $3.50+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Not keen on backmarkers today who will be forces to make long, sustained, wide runs, but that shouldn’t be the case here. Barrier one, small field should mean Meech can ride patiently and wait until the straight to stake claim. They should be within arms length and if so should be too good first up and happy to make a BEST BET of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

Blanket over the rest.

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

Race 6 @ 3.25pm AEST (Ladbrokes Odds Boost Handicap over 1519m):

Handicap

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 1

Suggested plays:

ROMANCER @ $4.10+ (BETFAIR) – Looks ready to win after several good runs this prep. Shouldn’t be any excuses today with conditions, speed and field all set to suit. Hard to beat. (EACH WAY)

GOLD FIELDS @ $31+ (TAB, PALMERBET) – Form is actually not bade when you look with a finer tooth comb. Definitely a step up but has form around runners who would be competitive here and most importantly would be much shorter odds. Good value. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

STRIKE FORCE

NEW UNIVERSE

MOSH MUSIC

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 7 @ 4.05pm AEST (McMahon’s Dairy McKenzie Stakes over 1200m):

Set Weights plus Penalties, Three-Years-Old, Colts and Geldings

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 2

Suggested plays:

CONDO’S EXPRESS @ $4.10+ (BETFAIR) – Has had good support, and another who draws the right gate and is expected to get the right run in transit. Meech rides and hoping track still playing as I expect as some key chances will get back and look to launch late. (EACH WAY)

*LEPOREM STAR* @ $23+ (BETFAIR) – Debut was good and at closer glance not the worst race in the world. Makes own luck from barrier one, on pace with Melham aboard. At the pricem happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

HIGHTAIL

HAWKER HURRICANE

EXETER

DEEP FORCE

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 8 @ 4.45pm AEST (Ranvet Handicap over 1200m):

BenchMark 90, Handicap

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 3

Suggested plays:

TAVISUN @ $3.50+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Good race, not a great deal of tempo and as a result think this sets up perfectly for TAVISUN who also gets important weight swing (2.5kg) on key rival USAIN BOWLER. Keen. (EACH WAY)

*MURAAQEB* @ $51+ (BET365) – More than capable galloper who headed overseas which is a sign of ability. Historically needed luck, but did figure more prominent in the running last time, and think that’s the way to go here, especially given the great gate (2). Way over the odds, blowout hope, another BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

USAIN BOWLER

TERBIUM

EPIC GREY

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

Race 9 @ 5.20pm AEST (MSC Signs Handicap over 2040m):

Quality

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 4

Suggested plays:

MASCULINO @ $8+ (NEDS, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR) – Looks to be good tempo on paper which makes this an interesting battle. Best ride may win. Leaning here given good draw, and can camp behind the leading pack and be reader to pounce, like several we’ve gone with today. And best of all, has the ability and gets nice weight drop here. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

CHAROSSA

TAVIRUN

INVERLOCH

AL GALAYEL

KENTUCKY BREEZE

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

 SUMMARY:

Average odds $14.05+ per suggested runner!

** BEST OF DAY**: SHOT OF IRISH @ $3.80+, BONS AWAY @ $3.50+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: LA TENE @ $16+, LEPOREM STAR @ $23+, MURAAQEB @ $51+

#happypunting