3 August 2019 (Racing at The Valley)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

THE VALLEY

SATURDAY, AUGUST 3, 2019

 

Racing returns to THE VALLEY for the first time after an extended break over winter. Penetrometer reading 4.79, so currently looking at a SOFT (5) surface with a chance of an upgrade to a GOOD (4) should we get no rain.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to THE VALLEY with the rail in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

Again trialling a new format for today, so keen to get thoughts/feedback to ensure we shape the ideal experience for the forthcoming Spring.

 

Race 1 @ 12.00pm AEST (Sheamus Mills Bloodstock Handicap over 1000m):

Handicap, Three-Years-Old, Colts and Geldings

Suggested plays:

  • ALBURQ @ $2.60+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Moroney stable flying, form last prep around I Am Imortal (over this trip – 1000m) and Yes Yes Yes (at this track) which is well and truly good enough for this. (WIN / EACH WAY)

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

Race 2 @ 12.35pm AEST (Hygain Tracktorque Handicap over 1000m):

Handicap, Three-Years-Old, Fillies

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 1

Suggested plays:

  • TARAAYEF @ $4.40+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Gets right weight swing on key rival ABSOLUTE FLIRT (3kg for 1.3L defeat on debut), after that beat a spruik horse at Sandown before a break. (EACH WAY)

  • RUMBLE DOLL @ $11+ (BET365) – Value, well supported, done nothing wrong in short career to date. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

  • JEDASTAR

  • ABSOLUTE FLIRT

  • MYSTICAL PURSUIT

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 3 @ 1.10pm AEST (Ladbrokes Back Yourself Handicap over 1600m):

BenchMark 84, Handicap, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Fillies and Mares

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 2

Suggested plays:

  • LUCKY WICK @ $13.20+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) – In Super form this prep and absolutely no reason to say won’t go close here once again, and had excuses last time also when running 3rd on the back of three consecutive wins. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

  • KISS AND CRY

  • PAINT THE TOWN TWO

CONFIDENCE: 25%

Race 4 @ 1.45pm AEST (Ladbrokes Handicap over 1600m):

Open handicap

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 3

Suggested plays:

  • **TRAVIMYFRIEND** @ $3.25+ (BETFAIR) – Racing consistently well, any give in the track a bonus, and importantly still getting in low in the weights. Will make a BEST OF THE DAY. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

  • NEW UNIVERSE (Was keen last time, but pulled up with thumps!)

  • ELITE DRAKE

  • KENTUCKY BREEZE

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

Race 5 @ 2.25pm AEST (Jockey Celebration Day Handicap over 1500m):

BenchMark 70, Handicap

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 4

Suggested plays:

  • LEGALE @ $6.50+ (BET365) – Slight lean in a tough race. Looks to be good speed, so should get race run to suit, especially to help offset bad gate. Hard to predict the pattern of the day, if any but assuming those off the pace and/or those wide (with cover) are getting their chance, then looks a nice each way play. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

  • Plenty of dangers in a deep, tough affair.

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 6 @ 3.05pm AEST (Chandler MacLeod Handicap over 2500m):

BenchMark 78, Handicap

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 1

Suggested plays:

  • THE STATESMAN @ $4.20+ (MOST OPERATORS) – We were on last time, when simply beaten by a superior galloper who looks well above average. Did nothing wrong on that occasion, and a similar run here has him hard to beat here. Weight the slight query, but gets claim. (EACH WAY)

  • *SAN REMO* @ $16.20+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) – Similarly had something on last time and ran well at a juicy price. Gets slight weight swing on our top pick here, and progressing well. At the price happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT OF DAY. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

  • MIRIMAR

  • MORE THAN EVER

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 7 @ 3.45pm AEST (Dynamic Print Group Handicap over 2040m):

Open Quality Handicap

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 2

Suggested plays:

  • **MASCULINO** @ $4+ (SPORTSBET) – Has been very good to us over the journey, and doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Barrier 1 a slight query, but Zahra rides so should be able to get to the right spot, depending on how track is playing prior. Happy to make a BEST OF THE DAY. (EACH WAY)

  • ANOTHER COLDIE @ $63+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) – Capable on day, and once fit, has had a few runs now and better trip here. Needs to lift but capable, and at the price happy to play. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

  • TWILIGHT RUN

  • BEDFORD

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

Race 8 @ 4.25pm AEST (Four’N Twenty Handicap over 1200m):

BenchMark 84, Handicap

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 3

Suggested plays:

  • USAIN BOWLER @ $4.40+ (BET365) – Good, tough race, but leaning with the bowler here up to a more suitable trip second up.  Has real ability (as is needed here with tough opposition) and Zahra rides which is always a bonus. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

  • TAVISUN

  • ROX THE CASTLE

  • AGE OF CHIVALRY

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 9 @ 5.00pm AEST (Woodside Park Stallion Parade Handicap over 1000m):

BenchMark 78, Handicap

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 4

Suggested plays:

  • MOOR WANTED @ $10+ (BET365) – Consistent and somewhat underrated galloper for mine who rarely puts in a bad one. Tough, even race, and simply represents better value than most. (EACH WAY)

  • ALUF @ $26.50+ (SPORTSBETTING.COM.AU) – Another very consistent type who has been simply outclassed and then straight may not have resulted in best at past couple, however not totally disgraced at either. More than capable, 1000m suits, legitimate blowout hope and happy to make another BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

  • Deep race, plenty of chances

CONFIDENCE: 25%

 

 SUMMARY:

Average odds $13.02+ per suggested runner!

** BEST OF DAY**: TRAVIMYFRIEND @ $3.25+, MASCULINO @ $4+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: SAN REMO @ $16.20+, ALUF @ $26.50+

#happypunting