31 August 2019 (Group 1 racing at Caulfield)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

CAULFIELD

SATURDAY, AUGUST 31, 2019

 

Racing returns to CAULFIELD with fine weather forecast for our last Saturday before the Spring is officially here. Currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD with the rail back in the TRUE position, after being out +10M here two weeks’ back. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1 @ 12.25am AEST (Symo’s 50th Handicap over 2400m):

Handicap

Suggested plays:

JINDA @ $6+ (TAB, PALMERBET, BET365) – Tough, extremely even race where there’s a fair bit of guesswork in terms of fitness levels. As a result, going with one rock hard fit and in form. (EACH WAY)

CONFIDENCE: 25%

 

Race 2 @ 1.00pm AEST (Nitto Denko Handicap over 1200m):

BenchMark 78, Handicap

Suggested plays:

RUBAN BLEU @ $9+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Won for us in great style last time and no reason to go close again here over the same trip which is pet trip, and has been close both at the track and on top of the ground, without winning. (EACH WAY)

*I’M TELLING YA* @ $23+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Another we’ve been on, last time running on very well for a place at a big price, and prior had excuses behind top pick RUBAN BLEU. Big overs! Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

DAWN DAWN

DIAMOND EFFORT

CHESS STAR

MASTERING

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 3 @ 1.35pm AEST (Clanbrooke Racing Handicap over 1400m):

Handicap, Minimum Weight 54kg, Four-Years-Old and Upwards, Mares

Suggested plays:

**MUSIC BAY** @ $4+ (MOST OPERATORS) –Above average galloper who was very good and consistent last prep Looks ready to fire first up on back of recent trial and impressive first up form. happy to make a BEST BET of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

OUR PENDANT

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

Race 4 @ 2.10pm AEST (ZircoDATA Heatherlie Stakes over 1700m):

LISTED, Handicap

Suggested plays:

STEEL PRINCE @ $4.70+ (BETFAIR) – Was incredible last prep (5 wins from 5) and no reason why can’t make it a lazy 6 on the trot and 8 from last 10 here (the two misses were 2nds!). Take on trust. (WIN / EACH WAY)

TWILIGHT RUN @ $12+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Was very good three back, so like the drop back in trip here. Has fitness on side, while several here arrive first up. Gets chance as a result. (WIN / EACH WAY)

SEMARI @ $26+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Consistent type who ran well in some good races last time in. Monitor betting as unsure first up, but drawn well, longer first up trip suits and Kah aboard. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

VALAC

BENITOITE

SUPER TITUS

CAPTAIN COOK

GUIZOT

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 5 @ 2.50pm AEST (H.D.F McNeil Stakes over 1200m):

GROUP 3, Set Weights plus Penalties, Three-Years-Old

Suggested plays:

**SUPER SETH** @ $4+ (BETFAIR) – Couldn’t have been more impressive at first two starts, before arguably needing the break for run #3. Has trialled well so anything close to debut run (only first up run to date) has him hard to beat here despite good opposition. Happy to make a BEST BET of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

MISSILE MANTRA

KING OF HASTINGS

SEBRAKATE

PEIDRA

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

Race 6 @ 3.30pm AEST (MRC Everest Series Heath 1100 Stakes over 1100m):

GROUP 3, Set Weights plus Penalties, Four-Years-Old and Upwards

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 1

Suggested plays:

MALAGUERRA @ $8.20+ (BETFAIR) – Cracking little race as you’d expect but plenty of first up/fresh form and fitness to try and line up. Pace looks strong which makes this very interesting with key chances on pace. MALAGUERRA now with new stable, flies fresh, showed enough last prep to say still might have a big win in him. (EACH WAY)

GLENALL @ $21+ (BET365) – Didn’t live up to some expectation last prep but did race in the top grade. Should get race run to suit and in smaller field won’t be too far off the leaders as they turn. Normally goes well fresh, can win at odds. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

VEGA MAGIC

BALL OF MUSCLE

GYTRASH

CONFIDENCE: 25%

 

Race 7 @ 4.10pm AEST (Moet & Chandon Cockram Stakes over 1200m):

GROUP 3, Set Weights plus Penalties, Four-Years-Old and Upwards, Mares

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 2

Suggested plays:

PIPPIE @ $2.85+ (BETFAIR) – Pace/tactics/how track is playing is crucial here with minimal pace on paper, which should given PIPPIE every chance to pinch a race leading break in the straight. We should know by race 7. If leaders/railers are struggling for whatever reason, SYLVIA’S MOTHER becomes top pick instead. (EACH WAY)

CRACK THE CODE @ $27+ (SPORTSBET) – Prior to this prep, had hardly put a footy wrong, however race not run to suit last time (as may be the case again here), however at the big price, too good to not have something on. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

SYLVIA’S MOTHER

AMPHITRITE

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

Race 8 @ 4.50pm AEST (New Zealand Bloodstock Memsie Stakes over 1400m):

GROUP 1, Standard Weight for Age, Three-Years-Old and Upwards

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 3

Suggested plays:

HARTNELL @ $8+ (BETFAIR) – What a star! At the price, just have to play on the back of ultra-consistent record against the very best. First up run was super, in this up to his eyeballs. (WIN / EACH WAY)

CLIFF’S EDGE @ $9+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Looks to have returned well, 3rd in Group 3, 2nd in Group 2, ready for 1st in Group 1 third up? No reason why not. Drawn well, gun Zahra rides, will make own luck. (WIN / EACH WAY)

*SESAR* @ $34+ (BET365) – We were on last time (rest assured it was first time) but despite never looking a real winning chance, smashed the line late once it was all over to somehow snag us a place from nowhere. Is screaming for 1400m on that run, and at the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

ALIZEE

SCALES OF JUSTICE

FUNDAMENTALIST

CONFIDENCE: 25%

 

Race 9 @ 5.25pm AEST (Ladbrokes Odds Boost Handicap over 1400m):

Handicap

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 4

Suggested plays:

AGE OF CHIVALRY @ $3+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) – Doesn’t look to be much pace on paper, so again assuming front runners are getting their chance, should be hard to catch. Flying. (WIN / EACH WAY)

HANG MAN @ $16+ (TAB) – Real up and comer to my eye, who has put in some super runs, mixed with the odd flop, but more times than not good and good can hopefully be enough to surprise at odds here. (EACH WAY)

SULLY @ $71+ (TAB) – Trip probably too short, but has ability and at a silly price, just need to have something on just in case for in form stable. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

NIGHT’S WATCH

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

 SUMMARY:

Average odds $16.04+ per suggested runner!

** BEST OF DAY**: MUSIC BAY @ $4+, SUPER SETH @ $4+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: I’M TELLING YA @ $23+, SESAR @ $34+

#happypunting