7 September 2019 (Group 2 racing at The Valley)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

THE VALLEY

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2019

 

Racing returns to THE VALLEY with the penetrometer reading 4.68, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface with a lot of forecast weather Friday not landing.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to THE VALLEY with the rail back in the TRUE position, after being out +4m here last time. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but as always be sure to monitor early races closely for best guide.

 

Race 1 @ 12.30pm AEST (Ladbrokes Odds Boost Exotics Handicap over 1500m):

Handicap, Minimum Weight 54kg, Three-Years-Old

Suggested plays:

THE HOLY ONE @ $3.60+ (BETEASY, BET365) – Back to back wins in lesser grade, however improving grade and only at 2nd and 3rd starts with blinkers being the crucial change after a poor debut. Stable flying, jockey flying and have a habit of winning streaks with their gallopers as they eye off a hat trick of wins. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

CONQUEROR

POWER SCHEME

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 2 @ 1.05pm AEST (1300 Australia Handicap over 1600m):

BenchMark 78, Handicap

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 1

Suggested plays:

JUNIPAL @ $3.80+ (BETEASY) – The class runner in the field and gets important weight relief with the claim dropping from 62 to 60kg. Should get a decent run in transit away from trouble and be in a position to unleash at the right time. (EACH WAY)

*I BOOGI* @ $26+ (SPORTSBET, PALMERBET) – Can be hard to catch in more recent times but goes well here and run two starts back after strong support says still has a big run in him. Another drawn well and should get chance to unleash finishing burst (alongside top pick and the one to beat) and best is good enough. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers / must for multiples/savers:

LAURE ME IN

HEIR TO THE THRONE

SILENT ROAR

SILENT COMMAND

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 3 @ 1.40pm AEST (Powerflo Solutions Handicap over 2040m):

Handicap

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 2

Suggested plays:

KENTUCKY BREEZE @ $3.40+ (UNIBET) – Is flying and absolutely no reason why this gelding can’t win again. Only rises 1kg for dominant win and looks set for a lovely run in transit. (EACH WAY)

*SYLPHEED* @ 16+ (TAB, PALMERBET) – Looks to be the best overs here, the concern seems to be the extra trip, but important to note ended up in an Adelaide Cup over two mile and although well beaten, the run prior was only beaten 1.3L over 2600m. Big overs, great each way value. Beat the favourite here home last start. As a result, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

AL GALAYEL

INVERLOCH

KING OF LEOGRANCE

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 4 @ 2.15pm AEST (PDF Food Services Handicap over 1200m):

BenchMark 84, Handicap, Minimum Weight 54kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Fillies and Mares

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 3

Suggested plays:

FABRIC @ $7+ (MOST OPERATORS) – We were on last time, when got way too far back, before rattling home against the pattern somewhat once it was all over. Good pace on paper here which is key, and assuming they’re running on, can come over the top of them at a nice each way price. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

HAUT BRION HER

MYSTERY LOVE

VICTORY KINGDOM

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

Race 5 @ 2.50 AEST (Inglis Atlantic Jewel Stakes over 1200m):

LISTED, Set Weights plus Penalties, Three-Years-Old, Fillies

EARLY QUADDIE – LEG 4

Suggested plays:

CHEER LEADER @ $9+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Terrible first up but clear excuse with vets report. Doesn’t look to be a stack of pace on paper and Blue Army dangers will get way back so hoping they bite off a lead larger than they can chew. At the price, happy to take that punt. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

EXHILLARATES

PIN SEC

WESTPORT

SALLY SALITAGE

TARAAYEF

CONFIDENCE: 25%

 

Race 6 @ 3.30pm AEST (Strathmore Community Bendigo Bank Stakes over 1200m):

LISTED, Quality

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 1

Suggested plays:

**DEPRIVE** @ $3.90+ (UNIBET) – Cracking race, with decent pace on paper which is important with several key chances expected to be forward in what we hope is a battle up front. DEPRIVE has the right form and importantly won’t be caught up in any speed battle and will be ready to pounce. Happy to make a BEST BET of the day. (EACH WAY)

BANDIPUR @ $17+ (BETEASY) – Ironically, I give the ex-Blue Army galloper a chance of knocking off our top pick here. Been racing well without winning but looks to be getting closer to a much-deserved victory but does need a big run here to beat a quality field here. At the price, happy to take the punt. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

THE INEVITABLE

TAVISUN

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

Race 7 @ 4.10pm AEST (Mittys McEwen Stakes over 1000m):

GROUP 2, Standard Weight for Age

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 2

Suggested plays:

**BONS AWAY** @ $4.60+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Was very good first up with us aboard, poor start costly, before rattling home to just miss. Good tempo on paper here and with rail TRUE hopefully backmarkers are getting their chance. We’ll know by race 7. Happy to make a BEST Bet of the day. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

EDUARDO

FAATINAH

BOOKER

PROPHET’S THUMB

MISS LEONIDAS

CONFIDENCE: 35%

 

Race 8 @ 4.50pm AEST (Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes over 1600m):

GROUP 2, Standard Weight for Age

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 3

Suggested plays:

FIFTY STARS @ $10+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Interesting race. Luck in running set to play some part. FIFTY STARS ticks most of the key boxes and can improve here second up which is required given the 5.8l defeat, however this is easier despite both being Group 2 events. (EACH WAY)

BEST OF DAYS @ $7+ (MOST OPERATORS) – If had drawn better I’d have been super keen, but even needing a touch of luck from the gate, happy to play on a saving WIN only basis. (WIN)

Main dangers:

HOMESMAN

SURPRISE BABY

SIKANDARABAD

KENEDNA

YULONG PRINCE

CONFIDENCE: 25%

 

Race 9 @ 5.30pm AEST (Drummond Golf Handicap over 1600m):

Handicap

MAIN QUADDIE – LEG 4

Suggested plays:

ROYAL ACE @ $8+ (MOST OPERATORS) – Liked the way it he dug deep to grind out a win last time after looking gone for all money. Stable going well, looks well suited in a race like this after a nice freshen up and dropping nicely in the weights. Drawn well, Kah rides, nice each way value. (EACH WAY)

Main dangers:

NEW UNIVERSE

VINLAND

DR DRILL

LUCKY FOR ALL

CONFIDENCE: 30%

 

 SUMMARY:

Average odds $11.67+ per suggested runner!

**BEST OF DAY**: DEPRIVE @ $3.90+, BON’S AWAY @ $4.60+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: I BOOGI @ $26+, SYLPHEED @ $16+

#happypunting