26 January 2015 (Australia Day at Sandown Hillside)

Racing at SANDOWN – HILLSIDE with penetrometer: 5.36, meaning we're on a GOOD (3).

RAIL: TRUE ENTIRE CIRCUIT (Assuming it plays fair and all runners get their chance, pace dependant)

Race 1: Tricky start to a tricky day that would normally be run at Caulfield. Even field assembled for the first in a benchmark 96 over 2400m. TAIYOO is flying and just have to admire how he just loves to fight for the finish line. The query is the 2400m for the first time, after 3 consecutive runs at 2000m, and up to 59.5kg today, as a result we think $2.80+ is worth risking. As usual, we aim to find the best value and we think that lies with YOU THINK SO @ $6.50+ (SPORTSBET) who was back to its best last time out in a similar field. Again gets plenty of weight relief (7kg on hardest to beat TAIYOO) after the claim and should be fighting out the finish.

SUGGEST: YOU THINK SO (EACH WAY & RUNNING DOUBLE INTO RACE 2: 2, 4) @ $6.50+ [CONFIDENCE 40%]

 

Race 2: Super little listed event here over 1000m, not easy. Similar to Dissident on Saturday, happy to take on MOMENT OF CHANGE first up over 1000m, although concede is obviously good enough to win here. SHAMAL WIND @ $3.00+ (BETEASY) is a runner we’ve continually potted (with great success) as so much has to go right for a jockey to time her short acceleration burst to perfection, however think she’s better suited over 1000m so giving her a chance today. i.e. Easier to time this 'short burst' over 1000m, compared with 1200m. She is very similar to THE QUARTERBACK @ $2.60+ (most operators), which they seemed to have worked out (better over 1000m) and the results now speak for themselves. Think the two of them are clear top picks here with a slight lean to SHAMAL WIND at slightly better odds and expect them to be fighting out the finish.

SUGGEST: SHAMAL WIND (WIN) @ $3.00+, SHAMAL WIND & THE QUARTERBACK (QUINELLA, RUNNING DOUBLE INTO RACE 3: 2, 4) [CONFIDENCE 70%]

 

Race 3: On many occasions we prefer to watch and learn in these 2YO events, but one here has really taken our eye both on debut and at a recent trial. TRENCH FIGHTER @ $9.00+ (SPORTSBET) is the one in question and despite already being somewhat found in betting ($13 into $9), still believe represents good enough value for a small play here. Main danger MESA @ $4.80+ (SPORTSBET) for the red hot Godolphin/John O’Shea stable. Best of luck to some Dungeon followers who have a share in BURNSTONE, who has done nothing wrong in recent trials and is nicely bred (Redoute’s Choice out of an Encosta De Lago mare). Good luck to connections there.

SUGGEST: TRENCH FIGHTER (EACH WAY) @ $9.00+, MESA (SAVER - WIN) @ $4.80+ [CONFIDENCE 30%]

 

Race 4: Watch and learn job, although we feel somewhat obligated to have something on HELSINGOR @ $8.00+ (SPORTSBET), given we seriously contemplated a purchase of this filly and would be somewhat devastated if she ends up being a star. That might sound a bit selfish, but I’m sure many have been in similar boats before and can relate. FONTITON the one to beat after ultra-impressive debut, but not going to be jumping into $1.80 in a 2YO event like this.

            SUGGEST: HELSINGOR (SMALL PLAY - WIN) @ $8.00+ [CONFIDENCE 20%]

 

Race 5: We don’t like taking shorties, but ***TRIED AND TIRED*** (BEST BET) does look extremely well placed here and should be hard to beat at $2.20+. #nosejob

            SUGGEST: TRIED AND TIRED (WIN) @ $2.20+ [CONFIDENCE 75%]

 

Race 6: Super race with a heap of up and coming talent on offer. Difficult, but have landed on two here to play around. FAST CASH is absolutely flying and is the one to beat here. $3.70+ (BETEASY) is decent enough value in our opinion on a WIN only basis. Best value is again *BERISHA* (BEST LONGSHOT) @ $20.00+ (BETEASY) who always seems to end up over the odds and returns to the location of arguably it’s best ever run (SANDOWN GUINEAS) behind key rival here in PETROLOGY. Represents super each way value @ $20+ win / $5.50+ place. PETROLOGY is one we tipped on Oaks day and saluted at double figure odds, so we have a soft spot, but not interested today first up, as usually takes a few runs to get going. Deep race, which doesn’t end there.

            SUGGEST: FAST CASH (WIN) @ $3.70+, BERISHA (EACH WAY) @ $20+ [CONFIDENCE 35%]

 

Race 7: Tricky race again, but we’ve found one here at odds in PEPPERMINT LANE @ $18+ (TAB SPORTSBET) who was not far behind key hope here MOSSBEAT last time, although needs to make up 1.6 lengths without any weigh pull. At $17+ (compared to $4.80), we’re happy to take the gamble. Main dangers MOSSBEAT and top weight SAMARTESTED are the main dangers and musts for QUADDIES, MULTIPLES and any savers.

            SUGGEST: PEPPERMINT LANE (EACH WAY) @ $18+ [CONFIDENCE 35%]

 

Race 8: Looked a tricky finish at first, but think we’ve found one in **JURASOUND** (BEST VALUE) who looks an excellent each way bet. On top here at the tidy $6.00+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU) after running admirably last time after being posted wide the trip in a much better fields than she meets here. Should get a decent run from gate 7 and with any luck should be fighting out the finish.

            SUGGEST: JURASOUND (EACH WAY) @ $6.00+ [CONFIDENCE 45%]

 

SUMMARY:

*** BEST BET: TRIED AND TIRED @ $2.20+

** BEST VALUE: JURASOUND @ $6.00+

* BEST LONGSHOT: BERISHA @ $20+

 

AN AVERAGE OF $8.49 PER SUGGESTED RUNNER

CONFIDENCE: 43.75% PER RACE

 

AS USUAL, MONITOR EARLY RACES TO CONFIRM HOW TRACK IS PLAYING AS ALL SUGGESTIONS ARE BASED ON NO BIAS, AND SIMPLY PACE IN THE RACE.

AS USUAL, WE’VE IDENTIFIED PLENTY OF VALUE THROUGHOUT. $8.49 PER RUNNER IS VALUE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN WE HAVE A $2.20 AND $3.75 POP IN THERE. LOW RISK (OUTLAY), HIGH REWARD (ODDS) BETTING!

 #HAPPYPUNTING